NL100: Turned TPTK, Villain Check Raises

[doublec]

Villain is 19/10/2 over 100 hands. Is betting the best thing to do on the turn?

No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $240.65
BB: $18.50
UTG: $40.55
UTG+1: $17.00
MP1: $111.45
Hero (MP2): $160.90
MP3: $24.00
CO: $97.50
BTN: $155.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $3.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12.00</font>, 5 folds, MP1 calls $8.50

Flop: ($25.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $15.00</font>, Hero calls $15.00

Turn: ($55.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $35.00</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises all-in to $84.45</font>, Hero calls $49.45

[[Phill]]

Your behind to his AT or set here and he played it pretty well imo.

Save your 49.45 - your getting around 175 to 50 or 3.5:1.

Id put his range at TT-99,77,ATs-A9s,ATo-A9o - so your gonna win 5.8% of the time.

Dunno what kinda range you need him to be on to get that 19:1 down to 3.5:1 to make it worthy of a call, but however lose it is i cant see him on it at all.

[mr.bum]

when he moves in ur hand is face up as ak. if it is a slightly reasonable opponent this is an easy fold.this is almost never a bluff.

[CalledDownLight]

fold flop, check turn, and then fold turn

[Mike Kelley]

To answer your question. Yes, checking the turn is usually the correct thing to do when you get to this point. I'd be surprised if villains range is as wide as some are painting it given he called a 3bet. 99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AQs+ seem pretty reasonable. You have a TPTK type hand and you are either way ahead or way behind. Call a bet on the river after checking the turn.

[Albert Moulton]

If you don't 3-bet 77-TT preflop, and if you don't just call the donk bet with QQ-AA, then you telegraph your hand a little by calling his small donk bet. If you call the donk bet with overpairs, then calling with AK to see what the turn and river bring is good. However, you should check the turn. He might have AQ or AJ, but AT, sets, 2-pairs are possible if he plays mid-sized suited connectors like this preflop.

I think checking the turn, and then call a bet on the river is best if you call the flop bet.

If you don't think he frequently donk bets with hands like AQ/AJ or even low pairs to test your hand, then just fold the flop. This kind of weak lead into a preflop reraiser is often a better-than-1-pair hand from a straightforward post flop player. If that is the case, you don't want to stick around because of the reverse implied odds of hitting your ace only to find that you were actually drawing dead.

On the other hand, many villains c/r with strong hands as a default. If he's a c/r'er who more often donk bets as "test" bets, then calling one is fine. Just don't bet the turn. Protection of your top pair is probably less valuable than pot control at that point - and inducing a bet from worse hands on the river that you can call. Now if you call the flop, check the turn, and villain checks a blank river (which is unlikely), then a value bet might be in order - but you should fold to a big c/r.

[threads13]

I just can't see putting in 2/3 of the effective stack and then folding. You are just getting too good of odds to be folding here. I think there is enough error in what his hand range may be to justify calling. Sure, he probably has a better hand but this would be a big laydown. You don't have enough of a read to make it, imo.

The rest of the hands is the problem though.

I probably would have raised a dollar or two more preflop, but that is nit-picking.

I don't really see a point in calling the flop here. What range do you put this guy on here? I think he has you beat on the flop and you don't have much fold equity by just calling the flop and trying to take it on the turn. So, if you are going to do anything on the flop then push so you at least have some fold equity.

If you can call the flop bet you surely can call this AI getting those odds. I don't think checking the turn is the play here in this size pot.

[PLAYOFFS]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can call the flop bet you surely can call this AI getting those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Johnes Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
fold flop, check turn, and then fold turn

[/ QUOTE ]

[[Phill]]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you can call the flop bet you surely can call this AI getting those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope.

I dont like the flop float personally, but its a call OP made to see if he backs off on the turn - he did on the A turn, hero bet it and villain went all in. How is AK EVER good here.

See my hand range analysis above. By all means try and put villain on a range that mkaes the 3.5:1 pot odds justify the call.

Ive made these kind of errors plenty where the pot is "too big to fold". The reality is your just burning money in the long term making this call.