bottom pair in blind defense

[rzk]

villain is roughly 48/19/1.5/39 att to steal 40

he's otb, i have 86o in bb, suits don't matter in this hand.

i call his steal raise, flop is 8KQ. i c/r, he calls.

turn is a K, i bet he calls.

river is a brick, i c/c.

i think all my decisions are questionable here.

on the flop, i didn't want to fold but thought if i c/c i'd probably have to fold to his turn continuation bet if an overcard falls. also he can take a free card with a draw. c/r'ing and leading out takes away from him these opportunities. however, my hand might be too weak for this sort of thing.

on the turn, i follow through on my plan hoping he's drawing to a straight or has a lower pp.

on the river, i thought he's aggressive enough for inducing a bluff from busted draws to be slightly profitable (even though he might not bet something like AJ).

what would you do in this hand? if you c/c the flop, what do you do next?

[sweetjazz]

Ugh, suits do matter. Did the flop have a flush draw? Did it come in or not? He's going to call you with a lot of Ax hands if there was a flush draw that didn't come in, so you should value bet. I think you're going to get more calls from A high than you are going to get induced bluffs, so I think I'd bet the river for value. Of course you're getting looked up by Qx, JJ-99, and A8 and losing, but the point is they would likely have value bet the river if you checked. You'll also get calls from 77-22 and Ax some of the time though.

I like the flop check/raise. It sounds like this opponent is the kind of player who will react pretty predictably to your check/raise and may make some bad calldowns. If you are check raising this flop with 8x, Qx, Kx and JT (and flush draws if applicable), then you have a nice balanced range.

I think check/calling this flop is basically setting yourself to get outplayed. You thwart a player's positional advantage by making it expensive for him to see more cards when you have a hand you want to continue on with.

[thepizzlefosho]

tough spot. I think you can make a case for c/c on the flop, and decide whether or not to get to SD based on what drops on the turn and river. But the c/r is ok I guess. But when he calls the turn I think if you are going to put in a bet on the river it is better as a b/f. There is a chance he calls down with AJ or AT, but most guys check these behind on the river. if you are going to c/c on this river you definitely need to take a note if you can induce a bluff this way, but I think you are probably no good if he bets the river.

so I probably would b/f the river with your line.

more often I c/c the flop and (it is relaly villain dependent) if he is really laggy I'll just call down if no A or J drops.

[thepizzlefosho]

yeah sweetjazz makes good points about the suits mattering in his call down range.

but I disagree with him that c/r is definitely the better plan. It has merits, but there are players where you are much better off letting them barrel and folding if the board gets really scary then trying to over-rep your hand (ie they'll never SD a worse hand, but they'll always call down or value bet a better hand on the river).

i think both plays have merits depending on villain, but I think you need to b/f the river if you c/r the flop and lead the turn.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, suits do matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry i wasn't clearer. what i meant when i said suits don't matter is that there were no possible flush draws at any point.

as for c/c for b/f the river, there are two additional arguments for c/c besides simply inducing a bluff:

- with c/c we save 1 bet from hands that are better than ours but fail to value bet, like 99,TT, and 8x
- an aggressive player might bluff-raise the river some portion of the time costing us the pot.

i still don't know which is better, but this is something worth considering.

[JacksonTens]

Hmmmm, I really get the impression your trying to play well, and will be good soon, But not just yet.

I think if you think about this hand you can evaluate it yourself. This is a hard hand to advise on, unless there.

I am ok with the flop c/r who I prefer c/c

given th turn its an obv bet as played. But I would c/c again.

River is a c/c or c/f depending on YOU.

JT

[6471849653]

That's a two high cards flop, out of position, a steal situation vs. the 40%. The flop is wall-like, definitely.

What one should do on the flop and the turn is sensitive to what one thinks the opponent will do on the turn and the river.

If this would be a heads up game the opponent would often have an 80% range of hands; here it's 40%, meaning one is in trouble when there are two high cards, and the higher they are, the worse.

How often one has the best hand here, one could try with the PokerStove (likely free), then combine that to the possibility the opponent will not bet the turn, and see if one will have a 30% or so chance to win at the SD (if one is going to call it down), and if not, one should fold on the turn.

The flop here easily fits to some "non-hands," like J9 and Ax, 22-77, that he might like to bet on the turn.

If the flop has a two flush, that needs to be calculated in; it has many implications, though it may be too unlikely to think he has it but he might be more likely to bet the turn when there's a two flush on the flop though he might think you would have raised on the flop if you would have it.

Is the pair of eights too high to fold? There are only the 22-77 that it can beat, that's almost nothing (about 1/15) considering his range. The other thing about the 8 is that there are less overcards that can beat it (here it doesn't make all that much of a difference, considering KX, QX, and we have an 8 here), it being one factor to consider when thinking about roping vs. the cr. Having a bottom pair may not be much different from having a weak middle pair, something that more players will rope.

Vs. a solid player one might fold on the river, if not on the turn. The last position in theory means he will bet less hands on the river, so if he bets, there is a higher chance he is bluffing (if he is not the type to stop bluffing on the river), if he rates to bet the turn.

Your opponent seems to have solid stats but as he is not a good player (too loose), he can't be trusted on any street.

Betting out is one possibility as a cr is better vs. an 80% range (as the opponent will fold more hands right there) but not that good vs. a 40% range and this flop. Considering that, a call looks the best if one has a line of how the opponent plays these flops. If one has no line, then one could possibly bet out if the opponent would fold a hand like J9 on the turn (or he raises for a free card on the flop) and at the river (if you check the 8 there) would not bet a hand like a 77 (he might also raise for a free card, or bet the turn too). Your opponent might do all the factors wrong, e.g. call with J9 up to the river and then bluff it.