AA vs. possible flush

[svj]

Villian is 13/7/1.8, over several hundred hands.

Went to SD: 25%
Win @ SD: 42%
Fold to Flop Bet: 75%
Fold to Turn Bet: 60%
Fold to River Bet: 50%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($48.25)
BB ($39.35)
UTG ($77.95)
UTG+1 ($36.05)
UTG+2 ($59.25)
Hero ($68.30)
MP2:Villian ($49.25)
MP3 ($50)
CO ($50.65)
Button ($82.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $2</font>, MP2 =#A500AF(Villian)/ calls $2, [color=#666666]5 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
UTG checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $5</font>, Villian calls $5, UTG folds.

Turn: ($16.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $10</font>, Villian calls $10.

River: ($36.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>

Hero....???

[beavens]

hero bets 1/2 to 2/3 pot and folds to a push

[nuggetz87]

I like it so far...4 options on the river:
bet/fold, bet/call, check/call, check/fold.

I think I'd check and be prepared to call a pot-sized bet. If you bet, a good player can raise you big with just a king, representing the flush.

Anyone else so convinced he has the flush they'd fold this river?

Edit: typo'd king :&lt;

[wooly_chicken]

I think it depends on reads of player. He seems kind of tight (pre flop at least)--will he bluff-represent the flush or will he check behind if he has something like AK? Also, I'm looser than 13/7 and I can't think of too many hands I would call a preflop raise with that make a flush draw here. I think I'd probably bet $20 or so and (depending on your reads) lean towards a fold if he comes over the top.

[Bigmoney]

Block. I don't think a guy like this is ever going to raise your river bet as a bluff.

[svj]

Since that seems to be it for response....

I went with Skeletor's route. Made a blocking bet of $7, being ready to call a min-raise, and fold any raise significantly larger.

He called and showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Maulik]

svj,

charge the draws more on the turn, POT it.

lead, fold to the min-raise. check/call or check/folding are equally good options depending on the size of the bet.

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
Since that seems to be it for response....

I went with Skeletor's route. Made a blocking bet of $7, being ready to call a min-raise, and fold any raise significantly larger.

He called and showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

if you made a blocking bet you'd fold to any raise :P