Donk bet on the river by a TAG

[Absolution]

This guy is a level 1 thinking LAG/TAG. He is fairly active pre-flop, but seems straight forward post-flop. He tends to give up quite easily and generally plays weak-tight:

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...

This looks like a WA/WB line and this guy might know of this line. I'm wondering if I should raise here. I don't beat many aces though and he might just be playing his cards and hit 2 pair or a straight.

[thepizzlefosho]

hmm close. He's probably only calling the raise with a worse hand when he has A2/3/4/6/9. while that is a pretty decent range, he is either calling or 3-betting with all rivered two pair and straights. He is also probably folding a T to the raise, so you don't make any more out of the raise.

I think it is close, but I like a raise, and fold to a 3-bet.

[Robin Foolz]

some lines based on two assumptions.

does he play so straightforward that he bets two pair or straights like this? call.

or is he the type that does this to sd cheaply with a ten or a weaker ace? raise/fold.

[Absolution]

He's not doing this with a T.

[Robin Foolz]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not doing this with a T.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, so assuming he's not doing this with a ten, then he's prolly not doing this either with 7x, 8x, 5x.

if you narrow his range to just weaker aces and 2pairs and straights, then obviously just call.

[thepizzlefosho]

yeah if you can take out the T then it is a call. The only hands that we beat that call a raise are weak As, and there are a lot more combos of rivered two pairs (including Aces up), straights, etc that have us beat.

[mattnxtc]

I dont see how this could really every be a raise with just 1 pair.

[thepizzlefosho]

because often this donk is with a weak ace or a pair+straight draw that missed. And the villain is either worried about you checking behind with crap or is making a horrible bluff. however because this is a TAG I think you are right, and we should just call.

[jba]

if we're beat it's almost 100% of the time because the river helped him. i'm assuming aces up besides A7 would have c/r the turn or earlier. most of the strong hands that beat us (J9/77) would have gone for a c/r at least some of the time so they should be discounted. this looks like a raise to me but it's close. but I would raise.

[mattnxtc]

[ QUOTE ]
if we're beat it's almost 100% of the time because the river helped him. i'm assuming aces up besides A7 would have c/r the turn or earlier. most of the strong hands that beat us (J9/77) would have gone for a c/r at least some of the time so they should be discounted. this looks like a raise to me but it's close. but I would raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think he played a draw this way or something like 78 which he hit. How often do we need to be right to be +ev with the raise?