200NL ATs on rag flop against moderate 3-bettor

[Dulce Liquido]

Villain 3 bets approx 15% of hands out of the BB, C-bets most flops.

Seat 1: Hero ($261.40)
Seat 2: Villain($200.00)
Hero posts the small blind of $1.00
Villain posts the big blind of $2.00
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
Hero raises to $7.00
Villain raises to $21.00
Hero calls $14.00
*** FLOP *** [6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
Villain bets $42.00
Hero raises to $240.40 and is all-in

I don't expect Villain to fold 22+ he may fold AJ - AK, but it's a stretch.

A few Questions.

That said, is this play +EV against an opponent likely to be 3-betting 15% of hands PF from the BB?

It is optimal to just call against an opponent whose is going to shove the turn with that entire range is it not?

Whereas against a villain who is likely to shut down on the turn with his probable 6 outer is it preferential to shove the flop as no further money is going in unless Villain catches?

If this were the first hand of HU, what is your standard line/play against an unknown? Fold PF?, Call PF/fold Flop? Call PF/Call Flop/Fold later streets?, Call PF/Shove flop?

All/any comments much appreciated.

[creedofhubris]

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That said, is this play +EV against an opponent likely to be 3-betting 15% of hands PF from the BB?

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This part of your post is a math question. Calculate how often he folds and how often he has AJ+, calculate your equity vs. AJ+ 22.

[Eskaborr]

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That said, is this play +EV against an opponent likely to be 3-betting 15% of hands PF from the BB?


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I'm going to do this pretty quick so it might not be super accurate, also I'm just going to assume what you did and that he can show up with 22+ here. I put his range at ATo+ JTs+ QJ+ And all pairs. I'm not sure I fully agree with this range but lets just wing it. That brings us to roughly 15% and the range he calls with is about 6% of hands with the range we gave him and what you said he wont fold any pair

lets say

60% of the time he folds and you win 84 +50.4 when he folds
40% of the time he calls and you have 17% equity in a 400 pot ((0.17*$400) - $178)) *.04 -44 when he calls

50.4 - 44 = a positive expectation of 6.40

Now thats just pairs assuming he doesn't call with AK or AQ. If he does you are done for. I also don't like this play fwiw.


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It is optimal to just call against an opponent whose is going to shove the turn with that entire range is it not?


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Although it would double your equity when the money goes in, in this case it isn't even as optimal as your line. And youd probably be losing around 40 dollars instead of winning 6 (although I'm still not sold on your play being +EV)

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If this were the first hand of HU, what is your standard line/play against an unknown? Fold PF?, Call PF/fold Flop? Call PF/Call Flop/Fold later streets?, Call PF/Shove flop?


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Probably call PF most of the time, folding is sometimes ok. I fold flop standardly vs an unkown.

I don't like this play at all and think you can def find better spots, it's a stretch to make this +EV