Bet on turn with Mid JJ pocket pair?

[maverickai]

SB stats: 18.75/10.42/.73 48 hands
UTG stats: 89.47/31.58/.84 57 hands


Preflop: HERO is in MP with J J
UTG raises to 0.50, 1 fold, HERO raises to 0.75, 3 folds, SB raises to 0.90, 1 fold, UTG calls 0.50, HERO calls 0.25.

<font color="green"> I'm putting SB on KQ+, AK is more likely. UTG would have a wide range, his VP$IP is crazy. </font>

Flop (3.25) T 4 9
SB checks, UTG bets 0.25, HERO raises to 0.50, SB calls 0.50, UTG calls 0.25.

<font color="green"> I'm raising to attempt to make UTG pay. I'm certain he's got nothing. However SB calls my raise, so I eliminate he's got big pocket pair. AK is even more likely in this case. </font>

Turn (4.75) K
SB checks, UTG checks, HERO bets 0.50, SB calls 0.50, UTG calls 0.50.

<font color="green"> I bet, cos pot is big, and I would not want everyone to see a free river. But should I have bet here, or just check? If I check, I'm pretty sure I'll face a bet on the river.</font>


River (6.25) 2
SB checks, UTG checks, HERO checks

<font color="green"> I chose to check, to see a free showdown. I'm certain someone has a K, given the action on the flop. </font>

Please critic any play you see to be inappropriate. thanks fellows. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Point Blank]

ugggg ...

UTG is clearly a retard and raising the flop to force SB hand's is good to me

i hate that turn card

i don't think taking a bet/fold line is bad ... but i really hate the turn card, and probably check behind

intending to call if the retard bets and fold if the other guy leads out ... i just can't see too many hands that 3bet OOP and call two cold on the flop
AK, JJ+, maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q gets past the flop (but I'm not too sure)
(folding JJ and QQ are pretty much why I would bet/fold the turn)
though we can't say much about this guy after only 50hands ... only thing we can really say is that he has some card selection preflop (do you have any showdown information that could become a 'read'?)

[tyler_cracker]

i don't like this converter.

bet the river. sb won't call with a worse hand but utg will. fold to a c/r.

[Sushiglutton]

I would check the turn. SB seems to have normal raising standards, so I assume we are behind on the turn most of the time. This is not enough reason to check however. But our gut-shot makes it a check IMO. If we bet we will be CR a lot (if u wanted advice on betting the turn or not, u need to cut the action right before u bet. The way the action went a bet looks great). If we only had the JJ we could make an easy fold and move on. But now we risk missing the opportunity to hit our straight. Agaisnt AK we may have 6 outs.

[maverickai]

Point Blank:
SB WTSD 36.36% W@SD100%

How does this convert to a read? He's WTSD is low, and his W@SD is 100%. So he only shows a best hand most of the time... pretty tight I would say. That would mean he folds to river bet more often too.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
Point Blank:
SB WTSD 36.36% W@SD100%

How does this convert to a read? He's WTSD is low, and his W@SD is 100%. So he only shows a best hand most of the time... pretty tight I would say. That would mean he folds to river bet more often too.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTSD doesn't really mean much until about 500-1K (hand IMO)

don't even bother looking at W$SD (think about your own variance) ... think 100K hand

also ... I don't mean stats - stats are 'reads'

'reads' are essentially how you've noticed a player play a hand before ...

like last night I'm playing ... someguy (by stats looks like he has hand standards and not too aggro) open raises in CO (BTN, idiot, cold calls I 3bet from the BB)

flop come down Ace small small ... i check, he bets (standard), retard folds, I raise, he call

turn bring another small card ... i bet he calls

river Ten (I think )
well at this point I know he doesn't have AK, so AQ, KK, QQ, JJ, maybe off chance of TT

I bet ... he calls with JJ

now - this guy of course is going to be value bet all night long and lose a lot of money!

<font color="red">EDIT</font>

after 500+ hands you can get some info fro WTSD ... if he calls too much or to little

i never really use that stat though ... i don't find it too useful (other may though)

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
I would check the turn. SB seems to have normal raising standards, so I assume we are behind on the turn most of the time. This is not enough reason to check however. But our gut-shot makes it a check IMO. If we bet we will be CR a lot (if u wanted advice on betting the turn or not, u need to cut the action right before u bet. The way the action went a bet looks great). If we only had the JJ we could make an easy fold and move on. But now we risk missing the opportunity to hit our straight. Agaisnt AK we may have 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not mind this if you were HU against the SB on the turn.

However, with the loose UTG still in the hand, I would bet the turn for value.