AQs against a reraise $4.40

markbris · #1 09-13-2007, 12:25 AM

This guy had been pretty quiet since I got to the table, a couple small pots and a couple raises one of which he showed AK. So I dont think pushing is an option, is calling one or should i just fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO (t1755)
Button (t7136)
SB (t11372)
BB (t13682)
Hero (t8058)
MP (t28846)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t1500, 3 folds, SB raises to t2400, 1 fold, Hero ?

Sherman · #2 09-13-2007, 12:33 AM

I so hate AQ for this reason. I think you are behind, but I am not sure if your odds of hitting your hand + implied odds can make up for it or not. Too much math and I don't have any of my "math" stuff at my Dad's house.

Slick_Weatherman · #3 09-13-2007, 01:46 AM

if im reading this right and you have to call 900 into that pot, i think you have to do it. if you hit the flop and hes still ahead, i guess youre going to get stacked. but i dont think its out of the question that he could have JJ 1010 AQ. even QQ or KK, your ace is live. this is if you have to call 900. if its 2400 MORE, then i would fold.

JammyDodga · #4 09-13-2007, 04:28 AM

What are you drawing to here? Ace, flush or broadway? I think you can't rely on your queen and if you call you need to be happy to fold if you do flop one.

The only good thing here is that the small raise pretty much rules out AK IMO.

Odds are so good here I think you still need to call. If he has got AA, there's only one card out there's thats going to screw you.

Sherman · #5 09-13-2007, 09:52 AM

A hand very similar this came up some time ago with Stumpy doing a bunch of math on it. In that hand, it ended up being a very close +EV call PF.

The differences from that hand to this hand are as follows:
1) In that hand, OP had added equity b/c of a 3rd player in the hand.

2) In that hand, OP was OOP. Here we are in position.

3) In that hand we were slightly deeper.

I don't know, in a cash game, I insta-fold this because I have no plan for my hand. That was my argument for folding in the other thread as well, however we were getting such a good price that having a pretty weak plan was +EV.

Given the similarities and the advantage of being in position, I say go ahead and call and see what happens on the flop.

sapsuckah · #6 09-13-2007, 10:18 AM

Nobody's mentioned that you could have simply open-pushed this with 13 BBs six-handed... probably what I would have done, since I'd be calling anyone else's push if I just raised like you did.

As played, you have a "quiet" villain and a minraise from OOP over your UTG raise... that's sticks of strength. Add to this the fact that your stack is shortish to begin with (which increases the likelihood that you're gonna go all the way on this hand), and this guy clearly wants you to stick around here.

I didn't run the math here either, but even if it's slightly +EV I may have to succumb to all the strength signs and lay this down. I'd still have 10 BBs to pushbot with.

BlueEcho · #7 09-13-2007, 11:07 AM

I'm in the fold boat as well. AQ makes having a plan for the rest of the hand hard since you can't really depend on an A or Q helping you. That said I hate folding getting almost 5-1 here. I guess the trouble for me here is along the lines of what sapsuckah said about this looking like this guy wants you in the hand.

JammyDodga · #8 09-13-2007, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the fold boat as well. AQ makes having a plan for the rest of the hand hard since you can't really depend on an A or Q helping you. That said I hate folding getting almost 5-1 here. I guess the trouble for me here is along the lines of what sapsuckah said about this looking like this guy wants you in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think the fact that the other guy re-raises so small rules out AK? I would play and count the ace as an out.

BlueEcho · #9 09-13-2007, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the fold boat as well. AQ makes having a plan for the rest of the hand hard since you can't really depend on an A or Q helping you. That said I hate folding getting almost 5-1 here. I guess the trouble for me here is along the lines of what sapsuckah said about this looking like this guy wants you in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think the fact that the other guy re-raises so small rules out AK? I would play and count the ace as an out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I was sort of looking at it from this perspective. We appear to be getting 5.8-1 to call (I guessed a 75 ante) which I think means we only need to be good here like 14% of the time or something. After that I figured that an A may hit the flop around 16% of the time (again a guess). Take out the times villian has AK or AA here and I don't like it much.

Certainly calling getting 5.8-1 has to have some merit, I agree. However, since that seems like a weak plan for our hand and the action dictates to me that we are up against some strength it really feels bad to continue.

Outside of hoping for an A to flop and just deciding that we are good with it, what else can we play for? I don't think our hand plays well against most hands that raise this way. Just my opinion.

DeuceSeven · #10 09-13-2007, 02:35 PM

With your awkward stack I would either open shove or raise to 3k with the intention of getting it all in on any flop. As played, I fold. Most small raises mean KK+ from the "better" $4.40 players. If I call, it's with the plan to get it all in if I flop an A.