55 vs. TAG - spewy?

[raze720]

BB is playing 12/7/3.75 through 84 hands.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $52.90
BB: $104.35
UTG: $132.55
MP: $56.35
Hero (CO): $139.85
BTN: $100.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $13.00</font>, Hero calls $9.00

Flop: ($26.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $18.00</font>, Hero calls $18.00

Turn: ($62.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $42.00</font>

When I decided to call preflop, flop, and bet turn I knew it was high variance but believed I had a small edge each time. Did I?

[Casper05]

12/7/4?? check, hit, stack him.

[HoldEmNewby]

Flop call makes sense given preflop call (we're not calling preflop for set value). I just don't see much FE in a 3bet pot against a nit, and we're only ahead of AQ,AK. I think preflop is a fold usually but no need to be a vanilla player all the time. Once he checks the turn his range is made mostly of AK or AQ.

As played I'd usually like to check this turn and try to stack when an A hits and bite the bullet when a K or Q come down. However there are 2 flush draws approaching I think i'd prefer to bet here.

[Casper05]

he has a FD like 1% of the time...the rest of the time he is crai or folding to our bet. check and call his river bet if you think he is going to bluff a missesd AK, or just be happy to check it down because he's never folding TT here. He's 12/7. Nits dont fold OPs- Nielso just posted a thread where he called down with K9- they don't play much so the like to see all the cardz.

[HoldEmNewby]

I agree he isn't folding overpairs but do you think he has an overpair after he checks the turn? The only overpairs he does this with are AA or KK no?

[Casper05]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree he isn't folding overpairs but do you think he has an overpair after he checks the turn? The only overpairs he does this with are AA or KK no?

[/ QUOTE ]When are we ever playing a hand that beats JJ like this? I'd put his range on JJ+/AK

[Marshall28]

hes only raising 7 percent of his hands ... so u basically have to put him on exactly AK to call flop.

and holdemnewby -- just because you arent calling preflop jsut for set value doesnt mean u have to call every time an ace or a king doesnt flop. there are other scenarios where u can take pots away from plaeyrs and u can make hands like straight draws that can be used as semibluffs. just dont think u have to call.

if this guy was more of a 18/15 or whatever id really like your line, but against a 12/7, i really think u need to check behind on the turn and take your free card. basically because hes too make a bluff attempt on the river if he misses, and if hes checking to trap u, u make your hand u will stack him every time. betting just makes him fold when he has nothing and shove when hes got aces or whateer

[Unknown Soldier]

fold flop obviously. pf is fine i think, but you're set mining only.

[HoldEmNewby]

Casper05,

I'm still not convinced that QQ-JJ are in his range as I feel they'd keep betting to get value and for fear of overs.

You're right though that we're not folding better hands by betting here and we have a decent draw. nh

[loosbastard]

[ QUOTE ]
12/7/4?? check, hit, stack him.

[/ QUOTE ]