Can he really be bluffing here? 2/4 NL

[DeucesNeverLoses]

8 handed 2/4 game, I have $440, both opponents have ~$300.

I am UTG w/ A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I raise to $16, middle position calls and BB calls. 3 to the flop:

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Pot= $50ish

BB checks, I bet $30, MP pauses, then calls, BB calls.

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Pot= $140

BB checks, I check, MP bets $60, BB grinds, then folds. Hero...?

I forgot to add the villain is new to the table. Only hands he has been involved in I've seen are he chased a flush draw down to the river against PSB's. Hasn't stabbed in position when I was in previous pots with him.

Fwiw, I am thinking to myself the only logical hands I can beat is AT, combo heart draw, or a weird bluff.

[DeucesNeverLoses]

Bump...anyone?

[creative]

you really are only beating at

and you'll surely be facing another bet on the river, whether the heart or spade or whatever comes this is just a fold

[jlocdog]

Bet more on the flop. Your small bet accomplishes nothing when narrowing his range.
No way am I ever folding to a $60 bet here getting 3.3-1 odds.
AT/combo heart draw/weird bluff makes up alot of his range by the way.

[mythrilfox]

"and you'll surely be facing another bet on the river, whether the heart or spade or whatever comes this is just a fold"

i dont really agree with this. pretty scary board and he sounds like the bad/straightforward type at these stakes... getting too good of odds, call here and fold the riv imo.

[creative]

why wouldnt he bet most of his range on the river?

[mythrilfox]

if flush or straight completed i'd be pretty surprised if he bluffed it since we could easily have a draw ourselves. that really only leaves weak made hands and good hands in his range, the latter of which might bet but might check, the former of which i doubt hes capable of bluffing.

if river totally blanks, will he bluff missed hearts? seems like the board is really scary, i wouldn't expect some random guy with 75bb at the table to bluff there, i'd expect him to be thankful that he got to see the river for cheap and give up. this board is pretty daunting to a 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hand on the river... plus a good deal of his drawish hands have a pair in them as well, and your average recreational player has a huge mental block about bluffing made hands, imo.

yes a lot of [censored] cards can come but we're def. ahead of his range now to call this bet, and he plays pretty straightforward on the big majority of those cards, i think.

[jlocdog]

Let me get this straight....you are calling the turn cause you are getting too good of odds but you are folding to any river bet with any card?

Something don't fly with that thought process. Only way I can justify it is if I can be certain he will be checking river with a frequency that makes the turn bet justified. Too late to do the math but if someone cares to delve please be my guest.

Also you are crazy if you think 67h doesn't bet the crap out of a heart river. Wtf would be the point of chasing all the way if he ain't gonna attempt to extract any value from it.

[mythrilfox]

what are you talking about, i never said i was calling the river, and i never said 67hh doesn't bet the river when he hits his flush

[jlocdog]

I don't understand your post then.

I said, "Let me get this straight....you are calling the turn cause you are getting too good of odds but you are folding to any river bet with any card?" in response to "getting too good of odds, call here and fold the riv imo."