Interesting Razz hand 30-60

[JackDuckSooted]

HORSE - Razz ($30/$60), Ante $5, Bring-In $10 (converter)

The river ck raise was for value of course also interesting was a ck raise on 6th street. We are playing 3 handed here and my opponent is a good aggressive player. Basically I think he has a 98 made and would expect me to bet a 97 so if I check he's betting that 98 100% imo. Also doubt he can 3 bet with an 8 also as it looks like I could have the nuts. What do you think? Results coming soon!

3rd Street - (0.50 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (4.83 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.42 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (5.42 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

River - (7.42 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___bets___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___raises

Total pot: (11.42 BB) [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Sp00n]

bet river, your hand is not strong enough to c/r.

[Andy B]

The river smacks of fancy play syndrome. Everything else is standard.

[*TT*]

Villain is 100% calling on 4th, you have no fold equity with this board shorthanded. A bet shows no value if that is true, your other option is to keep the pot small and your deception value remains high You likely have the best hand, but the villain is 4:1 against improving to a better hand by the next street.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 100% calling on 4th, you have no fold equity with this board shorthanded.

[/ QUOTE ]

not quite right I think, but okay

[ QUOTE ]
A bet shows no value if that is true

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? of course it does if we have the best hand! it might raise variance, too, but that shouldn't concern us much in a cash game.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 100% calling on 4th, you have no fold equity with this board shorthanded.

[/ QUOTE ]

not quite right I think, but okay

[ QUOTE ]
A bet shows no value if that is true

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? of course it does if we have the best hand! it might raise variance, too, but that shouldn't concern us much in a cash game.

[/ QUOTE ]

many cards can come on the following street which would force the hero to fold on 5th street if he is playing correctly. The value a bet shows in the long run (with no fold equity) is countered by the likelihood the hero will be forced to fold on the following street. I am pretty sure I discuss this concept in detail in the video series I produced for Deuces Cracked.

Its very close between a bet and a check, a check shows less variance and also helps to induce a call on later streets so I prefer that option. No reason to build a pot, keep the pot small and use your slim equity edge to your advantage because you will play better on the following streets. The nitty-low variance route to playing Razz is guaranteed to win the money in the long run, as it has been discussed before the win rates with this low-variance route are rather high.

[Micturition Man]

You can certainly check in spots where you are a small favorite for deception purposes, and this might be such a spot (although I really don't see how).

But to say a bet here has no value is... ahem.

Nobody knows what you meant to say when said the above. Maybe you meant "the bet has value but it's pretty slim, I prefer a check behind for deception".

But what you said was blatantly wrong, so why not just concede the point instead of throwing out more verbiage?

As for the OP, I think versus a solid player a check-raise should be definitely -EV here, since (1) he should never call 6th without the 98 made, and (2) he should know you know this, so (3) he should not be value betting 98.


EDIT - Decided to word the first part a little more nicely.

[JackDuckSooted]

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-EV here, since (1) he should never call 6th without the 98 made, and (2) he should know you know this, so (3) he should not be value betting 98.
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Yes but since I 'know' he has a 98 made why wouldn't I bet with my 97? I don't think that he would think I would be so timid I would check a 97 for fear that he improves his 98 to an 8.

Results: my opponent also bricked the river and bet and called the ck raise with a 98.

Had he bet and called the raise with an 8 I would not feel bad about this either as if I bet my 97 as suggested I'm calling the raise. I would only feel bad if my opponent would not bet a 98 for value ever or would never bluff which is not the case with most aggressive players winners and losers both.

In shorthanded games the situation where one player has been aggressive throughout and then checks the river is very common and it is usually responded to with thin value bets by the other player and usually correctly so!

For example if someone is betting all the way with K up in stud hi and checks the river he can expect his opponent to now bet the river with 9's and 3's. Or in stud/8 check a river an watch good players bet any 2 pair or 8 low. Also in hold em, raise pre and bet flop and turn if you check the river expect your opponent to certainly bet 2nd pair and maybe even any hand that can beat A hi like 33. And so from time to time I think it is good to through in a value ck raise with the hand you would normally value bet the river with. Fancy play yes but not a syndrome imo