25NL - Hero QQ, checks flop, hits set on turn, faces river shove

[automaton_22]

What do I do on the river here?
The Kh is a very scary card, completing
various hands that have me beat.

Can I call a bet this big? He has a flush or straight right? Or even a set of K.

But the more I thinks about it, the more I suspect AK [called my pre-flop reraise, called my big bet on the turn].


Villan is 26/13/1 over 50 hands - no other reads.

[EDIT - on reflection - my turn bet was terrible, should have shoved to squeeze out the draws].

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $21.75
UTG+1: $25
CO: $42.45
Button: $28.91
Hero: $31.81
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $1.48</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($7.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($19.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 is all-in $15.5</font>, Hero ?

[JPeezy55]

Yuck.

Discount the flush (though I guess it's possible).

10x (esp. TT, TQ) are the only hands in his range that beat you (I discount AA and KK, as we probably see more action preflop).

There's $19.25 in the pot and it costs you $15.5. You need to think there's a 45% chance he's "bluffing" -- i.e. doesn't have a 10 -- to make the call profitably.

I think you have to fold.

[shoxbb6]

Your 3bet pf is way too small, turn is fine. I'd rather just push riv myself, but once I check i'm gonna call.

[automaton_22]

Could have 3bet to 4.50 here pre flop I guess.
Yeah TT here makes sense, AT is also a strong possibility.

There is actually $35 in the pot by the river after villain's raise.

Peezy can you please explain your reasoning here: "There's $19.25 in the pot and it costs you $15.5. You need to think there's a 45% chance he's "bluffing" -- i.e. doesn't have a 10 -- to make the call profitably."

[DaycareInferno]

he's more likely to have something like a JTs here than TT. you can't really put him on a tight range of hands, since your pf raise was small, and he has position on you. most people are gonna call that raise with most of their raising range, so this guy can easily have 9T/TJ/hh/wotever.

[automaton_22]

Yeah for me the big lesson here was that my pf raise there was donkish.

Interested in comments as to what the appropriate raise would have been?

If a standard 3bet on a bet of 1 is 3, I guess 4.50 would be acceptable here, 3 x Villain's bet.

[orange]

call the river. there aren't a tremendous amount of Ts in his range i would think.

[nutstoyou]

I bet the flop for 3/4 of the pot. If he raises me then I fold. If he calls then I shove the turn when the third Q comes.

[JPeezy55]

Sorry, 45% was wrong. It should be 31%. Here's how I break it down (and please correct me if I'm wrong):

Assuming no flush an that the issue is simply if he has a 10, you're beat, and if he doesn't, you're gooe, the EV of calling can be defined as:

(-$15.50)x + ($15.50+$19.25)(1-x), where x is the probability that you're beat.

If you set that equal to 0 and solve for x, you get 69%, meaning if you think he's "bluffing" (or betting with something that you beat) 1-69%=31% of the time, you should call.

Sorry for the miscalculation.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I think you're right that you need to bet more preflop, something in the $4.50-$6 range.

[MoreOJPlease]

His range with his pfr includes JT, AT, etc. Since you min3bet him, his range still includes this. You dont bet the flop, which he is happy about because he wants to see a showdown with his JT or TT. After Q comes he 1 cant really see your hand improving, unless you're slowplaying.

Your hand is not improving. You need to get the money in earlier. I say 3 bet bigger preflop, and then check fold the flop. If you're going to min3bet like that, then go ahead and bet the flop maybe to get value out of JT and all those hands that you should have removed by 3betting bigger.

Tens are certainly in his range, he still has AT-9T here. I think, after checking behind the flop.

Alos I would overthreebet here a LOT since I really don't like playing out of position post flop, or consider calling if you think his EP range is narrow to go for pot control.