two pair on da turn

[rickastley lover]

I open A2o in the co of a 6 handed, 30/60 game. Villain 3 bets from sb, and we take the flop hu. Flop is A 10 2 r. I raise his bet, and he 3 bets. I elect to call and raise turn. Any merit to just capping right there?

Turn is a 7. I raise and he 3bets.

Villain is super tight, and i have played many hands w/ him. From memory, he is like 23/17 or lower. He gets out of line close to never (although Ive seen him do so once or twice, over a huge sample).

Anyway, I strongly consider folding and feel almost certain that I am drawing almost dead. He respects my play, and I think he has AK or worse close to never. Can I please fold?

[DeathDonkey]

Just depends how close to never. If his range is AT and TT then its a fold. If he can have AKs ever its a call down. I initially thought there might be some room to call and fold unimproved to 2 outer his TT but clearly that is not the case.

11,651,442 games 6.516 secs 1,788,127 games/sec

Board: Ac Th 2s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.870% 18.87% 00.00% 2198812 0.00 { A2o }
Hand 1: 81.130% 81.14% 00.00% 9453563 0.00 { TT, AKs, ATs, ATo }


---

17,137,160 games 9.594 secs 1,786,237 games/sec

Board: Ac Th 2s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 04.540% 04.54% 00.00% 778053 0.00 { A2o }
Hand 1: 95.460% 95.47% 00.00% 16360048 0.00 { TT, ATs, ATo }

-DeathDonkey

[TeeJayOrTJ]

Does that 7 bring in a flush draw? If he can have AK with flush draw you cant fold. And I am such a donkey I can't fold here anyways.

[sweetjazz]

DD, your first calculation looks wrong unless you're assuming he'd 3bet AKs and not AKo as some kind of variation of play? If we assume he ONLY 3bets AKs in the suit where the board has 2-flushed on the turn, then
(1) we can eliminate that hand if the board is a rainbow or if the 7 is in the same suit as the A
(2) we probably should fold if that is the only hand in his range we beat b/c it's one combo (where we have 60-65% equity) versus 9 combos of TT and AT that have us crushed (we have 5% or so equity).

Also, isn't 3betting AKs a pretty stupid semibluff here? It's the kind of 3bet that always gets called by better hands in practice and given the action it's a dog for sure unless our hero frequently makes very aggressive free showdown raises (rare) or gets way out of line. I'm not sure why we'd expect AK with a flush draw to show up a lot in his 3-betting range? I'd find it much more likely that villain got a bit out of line with A7s on the flop and 3bet the turn when he caught good (though I don't think is particularly likely) than that he is semibluffing AKs.

This situation sounds like a spot where you can fold your A2 and feel good about it. In practice, I rarely if ever make this fold. (Fortunately, it's rarely the right play to make.)

[YertleTurtle]

I don't think I can ever fold here. I'll let him show me AA, AT or TT. Where I can fold is preflop.

YT

[DeathDonkey]

You misunderstood why I included it Sweetjazz, he said he has AK "close to never" so I just through in AKs to show that if he can have AK 1/3 of the time its a clear call down. It was just a way of approximating him playing AK this way a small amount of the time. I made the board rainbow on purpose.

-DeathDonkey

[sweetjazz]

DD, thanks for clarifying I wasn't sure what your assumptions are.

If you can't fold (e.g. if you assume AK plays this way a fraction of the time), then you just calldown. You can't raise any river even if you improve, and presumably you can fold if a 7 or T falls (the T is a little closer depending on how likely A7 is in his range based on preflop and flop action).

That said, I don't mind a fold here given the read of the OP.