Big gutshot semibluff vs TAG

[aislephive]

Villain is a 17/13 nit/tag. Seems to be pretty straightforward and we haven't tangled at all yet. For you party regs his sn is "ATROCIOUS_". Anyways, I don't think he will make a hero call with one pair here here, and I'm pretty sure he would raise the flop with a set/two pair, and probably AK too.

MrHoobris, I'd appreciate if you could make one of those mathematical posts regarding this hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $517.40
BB: $217.21
UTG: $171.50
MP: $575.20
Hero (CO): $400.00
BTN: $448.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $16.00</font>, BTN calls $16.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($38) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $30.00</font>, BTN calls $30.00

Turn: ($98) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $56.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $354.00</font>

[Melchiades]

Looks fine with your read. He is probably capable of just calling this flop with a set though.

[bigbabyjesus]

If you believe him to be nitty I think it's good. I don't expect most players to fold an ace here but true nits usually will.

[jpsnow]

I like it i think he folds a lot. Only thing I dont like is the 2spade/2diamond board making your hand look like a draw, giving him more reason to call with hands like AQ or something.

[aislephive]

Bump.

[Hoopster81]

I'd rather triple barrel it

[MrHoobris]

So some people do like them! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Current Pot Size: 98+56 = 154
Left to Shove: 354
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 400*2+4 = 804

Equity when called: 8%.
This is a little odd because other than A2 and AdXd there's you've said there's no hands he's playing this way that he'd call with. So I'm not gonna bother stoving it, but basically when called you have a little less than 4 outs. So, we'll say roughly 8% equity (9% equity vs. pair of aces+, and 7% vs AdXd).

Let X be the probability of fold:
EV(0) = (X)(154) + (1-X)(804*0.08 - 354)
X = 70%.

So he needs to fold 70% of the time for the shove to be breakeven. Tough to say what % of his CCing range he plays this way and how big that range is.

This is one of those things I never try because I always think it just looks so full of [censored] and people will you down light. But I think I like it here.

With the coordinated board he'll be betting a good portion of his range to protect his hand. And then even though the flush draws are out, there's just no way a nit like ATROCIOUS is calling more than 1/3 times here if you have a reasonably solid image.

[aislephive]

Thanks for that Hoobris.

For results, he folded. I showed of course. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jfish]

i like it a bunch.

[JOHNY CA$H]

Yeah, I think you're good here +70%. Big balls, look like a chump though if he calls [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]