Odds, Pot Odds and Outs --OH MY!

[BlackDreams]

Hey there,

I've had the hardest time figuring out how these numbers all work together. If someone could point me in the right direction that would be most appreciated!

So you get 1 to 4 pot odds, $1 risk to win $4, how does this work in conjunction with your other odds, the odds of winning?

Sorry I'm pretty new at the mathematical aspect of the game.

Thanks again!

[DiamondDog]

Not trying to avoid the question, but I seriously doubt anyone will explain this stuff better than this guy does.

[PantsOnFire]

I will second getting a good book.

However, in answer to your question, odds are normally stated as X:1.

In your example, if you need to risk $1 to win $4, you are getting pot odds of 4:1. For this risk to be exactly correct, you need to win 1 time and lose 4 times. In other words, you will break even over the long run.

So for the immediate risk, you need a 1 in 5 or 20% chance of winning. If you have a better than 20% chance of winning, then you risk that $1 and over the long run you will come out ahead.

A simple example of using this is having a flush draw on the turn. You figure you can only win if you get a flush card on the river. You can calculate your chances of getting a flush card either by percentages or by odds.

You have two flush cards, there are two on the board, so there are nine cards left to help you. You can see two cards in your hand and four on the board so there are 46 unseen cards. You chances are 37(number of cards where you lose): 9(number of cards where you win = 4.11:1. In a percentage format, your chance is 9/46 * 100% = 19.6%.

So in this case, you don't have a 20% chance to win nor do you have a 4:1 chance to win. In the long run, you would lose money risking $1 to win $4 for a flush with one card to come (in most simple terms).

[shooter69]

Thats a simple problem. At first, the pot is $3 then one guy bet $1 and everyone folds to you. Now its ur turn. U correctly said that u have 4:1 on ur money. than after the flop with a openended str8 draw and a flushdraw u got 17 outs, which is very much. 3 cards are already on the board. then 51 - 3 = 47.
47 - 17(ur outs) = 30. the next step is 30/17. than the result is 1.76! so its an easy call! when he bets 2 dollar, the pot is $5, u get 2.5 odds on ur money. so u can call this time too.

[Small Fry]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a simple problem. At first, the pot is $3 then one guy bet $1 and everyone folds to you. Now its ur turn. U correctly said that u have 4:1 on ur money. than after the flop with a openended str8 draw and a flushdraw u got 17 outs, which is very much. 3 cards are already on the board. then 51 - 3 = 47.
47 - 17(ur outs) = 30. the next step is 30/17. than the result is 1.76! so its an easy call! when he bets 2 dollar, the pot is $5, u get 2.5 odds on ur money. so u can call this time too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Did you ever mess this up.

1. With a straight and a flush draw you'll have 15 outs - 9 for the flush and then 3 each for either end of the straight. Ex. you have 9s,8s and the flop is 6s,7h,2s, You have 9 spades for the flush which includes the 5 and ten of spades so that only leaves 3 more 5's and 3 more tens. 9+3+3=15

2. there are 52, not 51 cards in the deck and you know 5 of them, not just 3. 52-5= 47 (you got the 47 correct only because you can't subtract properly, 51-3=48) so that gives us odds of 32:15 or 2.13:1.

[shooter69]

holy ****...bad mistake [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
im very sorry for this...but u correctet me