6/12 Live: AQo in the CO

[jesse8888]

UTG raises. He has been very quiet for the 40 or so hands I've played with him. Seems tight, and might be pretty good. Or he could be card-dead.

Folds to Hero in the CO with AQo.

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Interlude:

Button has 6 chips in his hand and will be entering this pot. Button is a bad player; loose, passive, and hopeful.

BB will enter this hand if I do not raise. BB is terrible. Bets top pair or better on the flop, raises 2 pair or better on the turn, and calls down to the river with any draw or pair. I have a long history with BB and am confident his cards will be close to face up by the turn.
</font>

Back to the action:

Hero Calls (???)

Does the presence and known action of the two terrible players make my hand playable even if I assume UTG is solid?

[BigBadBabar]

sure, given your description i think it's playable.

[scpi10]

I don't play much live, but if I see a tight player riase UTG after not playing the last 40 hands I put him on AJ+ or TT+. Even with 2 callers behind I would fold to his raise. Also if you know the Button is calling, he might take it to the SD so you can see what UTG has and find out for sure what his PFR requirements are for UTG.

[Mike]

You are a coin flip to any pair UTG is holding if in fact he has a pair. Of course if he does not you are only behind to AK preflop.

I would call and let others in the hand. No need to get it heads up when there is an opportunity for more money in the pot when you need a flop to proceed.

The presence of Button and BB entering the pot keeps UTG from getting cute on any flop and representing a big hand he may not have. You on the other hand have position on UTG.

JMO, but BB sounds like a good player from your description....

[W. Deranged]

A couple of important questions:

1. How confident are you in your read of UTG? Is there a real possibility that he could be the type of player who only raises AA-JJ and AK?

2. How does UTG play after the flop? Will he make some incorrect folds on later streets? Will he punish you maximally if you both hit and he has you dominated?



My point here is simply that, yes, there are times when the value you can gain from the two poor players makes up for what is a disadvantageous situation vis-a-vis UTG, but there are also times where UTG has AQ in such bad shape that it will never be correct to play even against two complete fish. Calling only makes sense if you are: (a) reasonably confident you have decent equity in the pot on average (namely, UTG has a relatively wide raising range here); (b) you are confident that, post-flop, you have an edge over UTG and are confident that you will be able to make the most money from the fish.

As described, I think a "variance fold" is in order (namely, you are break-even-ish, and a call here has the potential to be very painful).

[youlosepork]

he prolly had you beat pf but def not going to call here, gotta 3 bet for a couple reasons, one being the blinds probly wont call. i would fold pf

[jesse8888]

[ QUOTE ]

JMO, but BB sounds like a good player from your description....

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I left some description of BB out. Suppose he is holding 67. If the flop is AT6, he will call down. If he raises me at any point in that hand, AQ is no good. If he does not, it is. If the flop is KT6, he will not bet, giving me a free card to beat him.

He's not the kind of player you're going to win a 20BB pot off of, but he's also not capable of any trickery.

[jesse8888]

[ QUOTE ]
A couple of important questions:

1. How confident are you in your read of UTG? Is there a real possibility that he could be the type of player who only raises AA-JJ and AK?

2. How does UTG play after the flop? Will he make some incorrect folds on later streets? Will he punish you maximally if you both hit and he has you dominated?


[/ QUOTE ]

1. It's hard for me to believe that he's THAT tight. 40 hands is not a very large sample size (he's been UTG like 4 times) so my read is tenuous at best. Obviously if he's raising only QQ+ and AK, I'm in pretty deep trouble.

2. Since he's been tight, I have only seen him really play 2 hands post-flop, both of which he won without showdown, and both of which smelled like fat over-pairs. He could have been aggressively betting draws/overcards, or he could have flopped a set. His postflop skills are basically unknown, with a slight lean towards "decent".

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
he prolly had you beat pf but def not going to call here, gotta 3 bet for a couple reasons, one being the blinds probly wont call. i would fold pf

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you want to get HU as an underdog instead of 4-way against 2 fish?

I'd fold, but calling is close. 3betting isn't.

[Mike]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

JMO, but BB sounds like a good player from your description....

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I left some description of BB out. Suppose he is holding 67. If the flop is AT6, he will call down. If he raises me at any point in that hand, AQ is no good. If he does not, it is. If the flop is KT6, he will not bet, giving me a free card to beat him.

He's not the kind of player you're going to win a 20BB pot off of, but he's also not capable of any trickery.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like BB! Reads like you think you should have folded preflop which is not the worst decision. Next hand is only a few seconds away either way.