So I flop 2 purrr...but now I wanna fold turn. WTF?

[loosbastard]

Villain is TAG @ like 21/15/1.7 over ~100 hands. I'm running like 32/27 and picking up a lot of pots w/o showdown. Is this ever a worse A/2pair here? Does my image really matter much here?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $99.00
BB: $43.20
UTG: $117.25
Hero (MP): $153.70
CO: $158.20
BTN: $124.90

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, CO calls $8.00, BTN folds

Turn: ($28) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $22.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $62.00</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $40.00 returned to CO

[Shizzle12345]

did you 2nd barrel alot? Did you bully him out of pots alot? Like when he wanted to float you , you 2nd barrel and all. if you play that loose, it depends on all kinds of small stuff i think.

If you havent been involved with him much your image probably doesnt really have much value here. If you feel hes really getting sick of you, i shove here. but fold most of the time i think.

[ilya]

Good fold IMO....if you've been agressive he probably would have let you keep betting with a naked Ace...in fact even if you haven't been that aggressive he probably would just call with a hand like A9...only hand that might have improved on the turn that you're still ahead of is T8 and a TAG prob doesn't call that PF in his position...no draws that could have improved enough to semibluff raise the turn, either

[loosbastard]

I hadn't played a significant pot w/ villain up to this point.

And while I'd been playing really loose PF...I hadn't really gotten too psycho post-flop so far. Most of the pots I was in didn't get past the flop.

[sh58]

really tough spot. i did some stoving on different ranges and it all depends on his 3betting range. a 21/15 will be calling a few more raises than a normal TAG, so i would expect a slightly narrower 3betting range. would he 3bet 88, ATs for example, or just call in pos. will he flat call AJ+ to try and trap you, then raise the turn when he thinks he has gotten enough value from you and wants to end the hand here / get value from worse aces?

obviously there is a hand we beat that is very possible, that is T8s, it is probably more likely than an Axs hand.

villain is fairly passive though, and that makes me lean towards a fold, although i think a call isn't ridiculous, i wouldn't lose sleep on it either way.

[sh58]

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Good fold IMO....if you've been agressive he probably would have let you keep betting with a naked Ace...in fact even if you haven't been that aggressive he probably would just call with a hand like A9...only hand that might have improved on the turn that you're still ahead of is T8 and a TAG prob doesn't call that PF in his position...no draws that could have improved enough to semibluff raise the turn, either

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if he is letting you keep betting if he has only an ace, why would he raise with 2 pair? also i can well imagine him calling in position with T8s. i think ATs and T8s are the biggest part of his range, he would be alot less likely to be calling with A8s IMO. also 33 fits very reasonably into his range.

[ilya]

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if he is letting you keep betting if he has only an ace, why would he raise with 2 pair? also i can well imagine him calling in position with T8s. i think ATs and T8s are the biggest part of his range, he would be alot less likely to be calling with A8s IMO. also 33 fits very reasonably into his range.

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because with a lone Ace most of his value is gonna come from catching OP's bluffs or over-aggressive value bets, while with 2 pair or better more value is gonna come from getting it in when OP actually has a hand.

I think his most likely hands are 33/88 btw, they fit perfectly with all streets (esp 33 but since only 1 combo...)

[sh58]

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if he is letting you keep betting if he has only an ace, why would he raise with 2 pair? also i can well imagine him calling in position with T8s. i think ATs and T8s are the biggest part of his range, he would be alot less likely to be calling with A8s IMO. also 33 fits very reasonably into his range.

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because with a lone Ace most of his value is gonna come from catching OP's bluffs or over-aggressive value bets, while with 2 pair or better more value is gonna come from getting it in when OP actually has a hand.

I think his most likely hand is 33 btw, it fits perfectly with all streets

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in that case, wouldn't he bluff catch the river with an ace, and raise the river with 2 pair, otherwise he loses the river bluff with 2pair

[ilya]

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if he is letting you keep betting if he has only an ace, why would he raise with 2 pair? also i can well imagine him calling in position with T8s. i think ATs and T8s are the biggest part of his range, he would be alot less likely to be calling with A8s IMO. also 33 fits very reasonably into his range.

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because with a lone Ace most of his value is gonna come from catching OP's bluffs or over-aggressive value bets, while with 2 pair or better more value is gonna come from getting it in when OP actually has a hand.

I think his most likely hand is 33 btw, it fits perfectly with all streets

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in that case, wouldn't he bluff catch the river with an ace, and raise the river with 2 pair, otherwise he loses the river bluff with 2pair

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hmm good point, with these stack sizes it would make more sense for him to wait until the river to raise 2 pair. he really should only wait if he figures a hand like AK/AQ will commit on the turn but will not lead out on the river (making it impossible for him to get it in as the pot will be $78 and eff stacks will be $120)...but if he figures he has a lot of FE against AQ on the turn, as seems more likely, that moves his range more to hands like 87 or 98. i guess if he's got a set he may figure it'll be a surer thing against 2pair if he raises the turn, but he's gotta figure that he'll also be missing out on bluffs &amp; chances for TP to improve to 2pair.