24+2/ 180 sit n go, FT, re-steel gone baaad

[tomek322]

Final table, everyone is pretty tight. I am the only one that has three bet PF. This seem slike a simple math question... is this ever 99 or AK? I am getting a bazzilion:1. Is this call mandatory?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t600/t1200
(Ante: t150)
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t29500
UTG+1: t26470
CO: t67269
Button: t87884
Hero: t28796
BB: t30081

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t3600</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t10000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in t29931</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???

[levAA]

for me it is a simple math question.
after your 3-bet you get pot odds of 1:2,25.
From the betting sequence you will be up against an overpair and sometimes face AK.
against the overpair you are 18% dog - 1:4,5.
against AK you are 40% dog 1:1,5.

so after doing the math you need a pobability of nearly 50% that villain has AK and not an overpair.

if you give him a 10% bluffing probability you still need to be 50% sure he is not holding an overpair.

[Pokerfarian]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.702% 71.42% 00.28% 180994580 712368.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 28.298% 28.02% 00.28% 71001676 712368.00 { JTs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.286% 65.99% 00.29% 280242176 1243866.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 33.714% 33.42% 00.29% 141921484 1243866.00 { JTs }

It's very close, maybe need payouts &amp; ICM. The fact that your in a similarly annoying bad situation if UTG+1 4-bets shows why your stack size is a bad one for restealing