push near the bubble - unsure of strategy

[golFUR]

It's been a while since I had an honest question...

I don't have a hand history but it shouldn't really be needed.

We are down to 29 players, the tourn pays out to 20 but I'm really only interested in top 4 or so. I am in 15th chip position with just shy of 8k in chips. The blinds are at 150/300 w/ the antes. There are only two players at my table who could call me all in preflop and not be crippled if they lost. Now the hand...

I'm in big blind w/ As8s, there are three limpers in the field and small blind completes, I check my option. The flop comes up TsJsAh. SB checks, I check, one of the limpers bets pot, just shy of 2k, he gets called in one position and it is back to me. The bettor and the caller both have me covered but neither by very much, 12k and 10.5k I think were their stacks. I reraise all in and get called by both, both have the QK for broadway.

Statistically speaking my all-in is okay, it'd work in cash game I think(?) I'm 37% to win it and triple up. I'll have just shy of 25k which is what the average stack would be at the start of the final table. Given that we aren't even at the final table yet I'd have plenty of time to really extend that and be a major leader by then.

Is it worth going out near the bubble if you don't have to, for that kind of a lead? Or if you have confidence in your game and your ability to maneuver with a medium stack should you just fold the A high and flush draw on the flop. With that many limpers it seems fairly certain you are up against a straight if not two pair or a better kicker.

What price a big stack?

[TFGoose]

Sorry you got coolered , but you flopped a monster hand. A pair of Aces with the nut flush draw is a fantastic hand, and there's absolutely no way you're getting away from it here. Yeah, with two other players, there's a decent likelihood that your pair is beaten, but it might not be. And even if it is, you have two draws at the stone nuts.

Only fold here if you hate money.

--TFGoose

[golFUR]

Maybe I overestimate my own abilities but that is what the crux of my question comes down to. At what point do you fold an awesome hand because you think you can still outplay the field and succeed? I'm pretty much a rock lately with only the safest, 'obvious' steals showing up later in my game. I don't have difficulty getting into the money. I've folded hands as big as 9s, in late position, with only one raiser in front, because I didn't like the table texture or the idea of going out at that point.

I know for certain that if the 2+2 community could look over my shoulder during an MTT most of them would be pulling their hair out over some of the folds I'm willing to make. I make sick folds. I also get into the money 20+% of the time though. That works for me. I know how to play the maniac game and sometimes a magical table texture calls for it. Mostly though, A-rag suited is beneath my notice, I won't even complete in the SB with it if the blinds are big enough and I can double w/ those chips later.

Technically speaking, I've got top pair w/ no kicker and some draw outs. I know for certain that if I had their QK I'd insta-call me even if the cards were face up.

[TFGoose]

Well sure you'd call if you had their hand and the cards were face up, I'd slap you if you didn't. :-) What you are asking here is a difficult question though, and one that has been explored quite a bit on this forum. You're basically wondering what the threshold is for disregarding a mathematically +EV situation because you feel your skill compensates for your decision to fold. When is it okay to fold a hand that the odds stipulate is a call, because you feel like you'll be able to do better by folding and using your skill to gather chips in some kind of safer, lower risk sitaution.

The problem with this question is that it assumes you will definitely encounter that safer, lower risk situation sometime before you go broke. There isn't any guarantee for that though, which is why math is such a powerful tool. Math is the reason why you may decide to call this hand if both of your opponents pushed in front of you and flipped their hands up. Your flush draw is live, and you are getting the odds you need to spike it.

But that's not even the situation you have here. In this hand, you are the aggressor, and have no idea that your opponents are that strong. With the stacks and blinds involves, there is absolutely no way you're getting away from this hand. I mean, with 7500 chips or so left, around 5500 in the pot, and holding top pair with a draw to the nuts, are you seriously considering folding? No way. The move here is to get all your chips in the middle with what could very well be the best hand. The better could have an Ace he's willing to fold to your push. The caller could have a worse draw than you do and fold as well. And even if one or both of them call, there's NO WAY you're drawing dead.

To put it plainly (and I don't mean any offense by this), you're not good enough to fold this hand. The best pros in the world don't pass up edges like this, so I don't think you and I can either.

--TFGoose

[Sound of Silence]

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I've folded hands as big as 9s, in late position, with only one raiser in front, because I didn't like the table texture or the idea of going out at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be rude or anything but this is not a sick fold. Folding 46 on a 644Q2 board because your only logical conclusion, given the action, is that your opponent has QQ is.

With that said, I would usually lead out/3-bet because i don't see many limping hands hitting this board better than yours just did, with the exception of JT and AT. I wouldn't be too worried about TT+, AJ+ and KQ, in this spot because those are usually raised pf. But given what most players limp with, I think you're a favorite over most ranges, even if its just a slight favorite.

[ QUOTE ]
Or if you have confidence in your game and your ability to maneuver with a medium stack should you just fold the A high and flush draw on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With an M of 12, I don't think you have very much room to maneuver, especially if the blinds/antes are about to increase. I think waiting for a "better spot" than this is playing weak-tight poker.

[21times20]

i have always considered people who justify a play they make because they feel they can outplay their opponents either later in the hand, or later in the tournament to be much less likely to be successful professionals than people who don't have this confidence in their ability to "outplay" people

[golFUR]

<quote>To put it plainly (and I don't mean any offense by this), you're not good enough to fold this hand. The best pros in the world don't pass up edges like this, so I don't think you and I can either.</quote>

Okay, the responses are much appreciated and about what I hoped for. Last question then as nobody addressed it. What about just calling that pot bet and seeing one more card rather than the check raise? Given the hands I was up against it seems obvious that if I'd lead out they'd have raised and/or reraised and I'd have ended up all in anyways, committed by my own bet. Is just calling a mistake given the EV on the hand? Or is it the happy middle ground between not liking top pair without a kicker but also not being able to lay down such a big draw? I mean, if I trust my skills that much there isn't much difference between a 4k stack at 150/300 and a 6k stack if I'd folded like I nearly foolishly considered I could. Given the other stacks at the table I've only bought one more orbit, haven't guaranteed limping into the money and am still looking at an all in for my next move.

[Sound of Silence]

Your equity decreases dramatically if you just call and miss, making any bet/shove/call on the turn -EV. Also, if you spike a spade on the turn, how likely is it that you can extract more chips from them?

[hamnegger]

i think u blew your chance before the flop! to steal but i would have gotten it in here too. i prob pot it though on the flop and call a reraise im not check raising bc thats committing players more to the pot w draws that can beat our hand.