My draw is big, but big enough for all this action...?

[hennnerz]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $24.90
UTG+1: $9.15
Hero: $25.60
Button: $9.65
SB: $34.45
BB: $35.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $11</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $24.6</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($54.2, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $54.2)


River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($54.2, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $54.2)


Results:
Final pot: $54.2

Over just 316 hands villain runs 21/13/1.8

Hows my line? I dont feel I can get away from this at any time in the hand. I am defo drawing to 9 pure outs then theres the OESD. I have little FE for my push but at the point I think the money is going in anyway.

[Jouster777]

you are not definitely drawing to 9 outs...7 outs vs. a set which, with made straights are villain's most likely holding. This is a fold to the c/r.

[ps27]

Thats a big raise, maybe 55/99, 78, 89. I dunno my gut says villan wouldnt raise 9 more in a 7 dollar pot with the goods.

Vs. a set you are drawing to 14 outs.
Vs. a made straight 9 outs
Vs. pair plus straight draw 12+ depending on which he has.

Id have no problem calling.

[corsakh]

Totally fine. You have at least 40% equity against most of his range.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a big raise, maybe 55/99, 78, 89. I dunno my gut says villan wouldnt raise 9 more in a 7 dollar pot with the goods.

Vs. a set you are drawing to 14 outs.
Vs. a made straight 9 outs
Vs. pair plus straight draw 12+ depending on which he has.

Id have no problem calling.

[/ QUOTE ]
I misstated the outs vs. a set (so did you)...I meant to say only 7 flush outs (total of 13) and effective outs vs. a set are even lower (we have 39% equity vs. a set given the boat redraws (equivalent to sl. better than 10 outs)

The push vs. fold is close but we need to win &gt;43.3% of the time to make this a good push (assuming FE =0). Probably enough FE+fishy villain moves to make it a push but without these factors its a fold.

Board: 6d 8c 7d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.212% 39.09% 02.12% 8127 441.00 { Ad5d }
Hand 1: 58.788% 56.67% 02.12% 11781 441.00 { 88-66, T9s, 87s, 76s, 54s }

[barabe]

yes it is. good all in.

[ps27]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thats a big raise, maybe 55/99, 78, 89. I dunno my gut says villan wouldnt raise 9 more in a 7 dollar pot with the goods.

Vs. a set you are drawing to 14 outs.
Vs. a made straight 9 outs
Vs. pair plus straight draw 12+ depending on which he has.

Id have no problem calling.

[/ QUOTE ]
I misstated the outs vs. a set (so did you)...I meant to say only 7 flush outs (total of 13) and effective outs vs. a set are even lower (we have 39% equity vs. a set given the boat redraws (equivalent to sl. better than 10 outs)



[/ QUOTE ]

8 flush outs + 6 str8 outs equals 14

[ps27]

I did say no problem calling i meant no problem getting all in.

I also think 99 is part of his range maybe even TT as well as well as a random hand or two such as KdQd or Td8d.

Also playing this with 15 seconds to make a decision you cant really do all the math, you can make approximations and this is pretty darn close to getting your money in good math wise.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
8 flush outs + 6 str8 outs equals 14

[/ QUOTE ] At the risk of nitpicking...Only 7 flush outs because if the turn doesn't pair the board then it can be paired on the river.

I agree with you otherwise including the range widening enough to make the push ok.

[monkeymaps]

yeah I think 99 and TT have to be included here. I see that kind of player all the time wont 3bet with them but if they flop and overpair they play it like its the nuts.