Implied odds: what do you need to pursue a gutshot?

[cheburashka]

Actual vs. implied odds are a very tough question for me—how often and how much can I count on getting paid, and what that implies about how worthwhile it is to pursue what kind of draw.

Villain is one of those extremely loose-passive types (78/11/0.4), seeing every flop and getting lucky a lot. I am playing very tight (12/7/2.5), more due to lack of cards than anything else.

UTG: (1910 in chips)
UTG+1: (2760 in chips)
MP1: (5380 in chips)
MP2: (2340 in chips)
HJ: (2800 in chips)
CO: (1650 in chips)
BU: (1380 in chips)
SB: (1350 in chips)
Hero: (3790 in chips)

Hero is in BB with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]; blinds are 30/15

Two folds, MP1 calls 30, five folds, Hero checks.

FLOP (75): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero bets 60, MP1 calls.

TURN (195): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero checks, MP1 bets 90, Hero???

[MJBuddy]

Typically if you're going to chase a GSSD for implied, call a very small flop bet only and try to make up your implied on the turn and the river. Give up on the turn otherwise.


The problem with GSSD is that typically they make weak straights and you can't extract max value out of it.

[cheburashka]

Thanks MJ. The idea behind my flop bet here was to get him out, assuming my 3s were probably good at that point (as I said, he's been very passive and laying down when he whiffs the flop). I was surprised at his call, and so on the turn I put him on something like A6, A7, K6, K7 (remember, VPIP of 78). So on the turn, I had my GSSD, plus probably 5 other outs.

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]

The problem with GSSD is that typically they make weak straights and you can't extract max value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not getting you, what do you mean?

[MJBuddy]

You need 4 to 1 to call if all of your cards are outs. You're getting 3 to 1 now. Can you extract 100 more chips on the river?

[cheburashka]

BTW, villain has since settled down to a more reasonable 55/3/0.4, but hes racking up chips and is 4th at 7700.

[cheburashka]

[ QUOTE ]
You need 4 to 1 to call if all of your cards are outs. You're getting 3 to 1 now. Can you extract 100 more chips on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll let you know after a few more replies come in [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[MJBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The problem with GSSD is that typically they make weak straights and you can't extract max value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not getting you, what do you mean?

[/ QUOTE ]


If the 5 peels off here and he hits his straight, the board is

7653. There are two combinations of hands that make better straights. I.e. not the idiot's end.

In this case, these hands are rare.
98, 84. but trying to hit a gssd with a j, 9, or T is almost always deadly in a multiway pot.

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The problem with GSSD is that typically they make weak straights and you can't extract max value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not getting you, what do you mean?

[/ QUOTE ]


If the 5 peels off here and he hits his straight, the board is

7653. There are two combinations of hands that make better straights. I.e. not the idiot's end.

In this case, these hands are rare.
98, 84. but trying to hit a gssd with a j, 9, or T is almost always deadly in a multiway pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that different with a GSSD to a OESD?

[BrandiFan]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with THAT GSSD is that it makes a weak straight and you can't extract max value out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]Solution: chase when they won't put you on a straight when you hit. Implied odds mean you'll get paid off, so you need to draw to a hand that's not obvious when it hits.
i.e. board A29 rainbow and you hold 34.