100NL:Hit Top 2 pair on turn - villain check-shove

[alaewin]

Villain is 29/9/1,8 over 200 hands.
What do you say....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($59.90)
Button ($98.50)
SB ($358.80)
BB ($85.10)
UTG ($131.95)
UTG+1 ($29.35)
MP1 ($57.80)
Hero ($97.40)
MP3 ($48.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $3.50.

Flop: ($14.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11</font>, SB calls $11, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($36.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $93</font>, Hero ???

[hielo_uno]

you have to call here, even if you are beat, you still have outs. your hand is probably good against a donk

[solvine]

tough spot, your losing to 9 10 or 88, but beat qj/kj. Is villain really loose enough to play j8 or Q8. If he is then i would probably call, if not then i think it is a fold.

[Mike Kelley]

Here's your equity against the range of hands I think he might do this with...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,752 games 0.005 secs 950,400 games/sec

Board: Qc 8d Jh Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.418% 54.57% 01.85% 2593 88.00 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 43.582% 41.73% 01.85% 1983 88.00 { JJ+, 88, AKs, AhQh, ATs, Ah8h, KJs+, K8s, QJs, Q8s, J8s, T9s, AQo+, ATo, A8o, KJo+, K8o, QJo, Q8o, J8o, T9o }

I'm pretty sure we can't eliminate enough hands given what is already invested in the pot to not call. Maybe my range is too wide but all of these hands are in the top 29% that villain plays.

[piebear]

I don't think I agree with the range you have put him on there.

Board: Qc 8d Jh Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.524% 25.63% 06.90% 327 88.00 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 67.476% 60.58% 06.90% 773 88.00 { 88, KQs, QJs, T9s, KQo, QJo, T9o }

That's my 2c.

you're getting 2:1. Very very marginal.

[Mike Kelley]

His fold to CB % might shed some light also. I have added this stat to my Pokeracehud. Is he a lookup artist?

[chopchoi]

KJ is definately in his range.

[CalledDownLight]

I fold here. You're only beating KJ.

[Javanewt]

Hero has shown strength and villain pushes. I think villain can beat two pair. I agree that it's a marginal call.

[uminchu]

why are we leaving jj out of his range, many play them for set value