NL25 - K high flush in blind battle, river decision

[volition]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($5.72)
Button ($34.13)
SB ($23.08)
Hero ($35.19)
UTG ($24.25)
MP ($15.68)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.62) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($4.62) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, SB calls $4.

River: ($12.62) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $5</font>, hero...

Villain is 13/9/3.33 over 99 hands.

So, I wasn't sure what to do on the river here. I think his betting actions are pretty odd here, with his check on the turn and then leading out on the river for less than half the pot. What do you think he has, and what should I do? Raise him all in? Just call?

[chrismystero]

I call. The only way a raise would be profitable IMO here is when he has 3 of a kind, eights. I think this is unlikely because that would mean he would have had to have bet a straight draw on the flop, called a 4x raise, and backdoor'd trips. Kind of unlikely.

[toddxlogan]

[ QUOTE ]
I call. The only way a raise would be profitable IMO here is when he has 3 of a kind, eights. I think this is unlikely because that would mean he would have had to have bet a straight draw on the flop, called a 4x raise, and backdoor'd trips. Kind of unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about every other heart flush draw that would play this hand this EXACT way?

[chrismystero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call. The only way a raise would be profitable IMO here is when he has 3 of a kind, eights. I think this is unlikely because that would mean he would have had to have bet a straight draw on the flop, called a 4x raise, and backdoor'd trips. Kind of unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about every other heart flush draw that would play this hand this EXACT way?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. However, I still like flat calling, because although there are other small flushes that would pay off a raise, there's also the A high flush probable for him, as well as odd fullhouses to consider that beats us. All that, and if the river bet is a bluff or something odd like that there is really no value in raising. It's definitely close, and raising isn't bad, but I personally choose to call.

[KEW]

I feel WEAK but I only CALL here...NON nut flush and a paired board vs a tight villain...Why bet the turn??? You raised with air, villain called, the 8 did not improve your hand so I doubt villain is folding after calling the flop raise..Getting CRed would suk with our draw..Take the free card...

[toddxlogan]

I think i see merits for both calling and raising, and the more I think about it, the more I think there is hardly an EV difference in the two.

I have a decently active image, and thus I think it is marginally +EV for me to push here, but I definitely see the merit of flat calling, especially if you have been playing ABC and villain pays attention (stats make him look like he probably has).

Meh, close decision. The great part about small decisions?

They don't really matter!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DaycareInferno]

i would raise preflop, check behind turn, and raise river.

how you play in these situations is determined a lot by whether or not you think your opponent has a heads up mentality in heads up hands though, or at least closer to it than normal. if you posted this in the HU forum, everyone would be screaming at you to get your chips in.

thing is, a lot of villains just play the same regardless. its kind of like being in a tournament and you have a K4 on the bb. its folded to mp who has 5bb remaining, and he moves all-in, and action folds to you. well, this is an easy call against someone that understands the general concepts of tournament poker, but not so much against someone that is new to it and just keeps playing the same from start to finish.

[selector2006]

I agree with others who said to raise preflop.
Check the turn, it's -EV to bet in this spot I think.
Make a raise on the river, doesn't have to be big. I don't think he has a FH often enough to make that a bad raise.