Hero Calls...should we 'hero raise'

[Acevader]

First off I feel this post may be a little less relevant at higher stakes NL but, in my opinion, does have relevance at lower stakes NL and possibly mid.

There is a common betting pattern that often occurs between two players and here is an example:

Hero raises AKs on the button and finds a caller on the BB.

The flop comes 9,5,2 and the suits don't matter.

Villain checks, hero c-bets, villain calls.

The turn is an 9 and the action is check, check.

The river is a 2 and villain bets out 2/3rd.

I find villain very often, at the lower limits, bets with air, AK/AQ type hands (which actually have SD value) 5x, any PP, etc. They tend not to think in terms of 'what weaker hands will my opponent call with' and more in terms of 'he has c-bet and given up'. They don't realise that with a 5 or small PP here checking will probably win them the pot but by betting they are nearly always beat if called.

I've seen myself often hoovering over call with these donks and on the times I do call they often turn out of have 44 or some junk like that. There is no way they were clever enough to value bet thinking I might AK call. They bet simply because I'd shut down. This seems common.

I wonder therefore if there is merit in raising every time we get that 'My AK is good or close to good' feeling. Now I know that we are not representing a hand here and any player worth his salt will pick off our bluff with ease, but I'm taking about players that won't/can't put us on a range. They will simply look at our raise and anything short of a FH on this board will shrivel up and die.

I realise, as usual, I've probably not given the best examples and that's probably because my thinking isn't solidified in my own head. I guess what I'm driving at is that when you are reluctantly folding or calling a very weak hand is there not merit in simply raising it. Now and again you'll run into a monster or villain will make a truly mad call but I think often you will re-bluff villain or take him off a hand of marginal SD value that he probably should have checked.

Again I stress that in my experience of NL$600+ a river bet like this is nearly always a pure bluff or a value bet but at the lower levels there seems to be a lot of players that bet the river simply on account of hero apparently shutting down and often with hands they should be betting.

Thoughts.

[Jkemp]

My advice is if from your observations of the player your gut is telling you you've got the better hands, you should probably call, a raise, might bluff em out of the pot, or at those limits, end up gettting a re-raise bluff from them,putting you with even more money committed to the pot. because at that point on the river thats what they think your doing, that and sometimes your raise will be re-raised back at ya by someone who honestly does have the best hand.At best a flat call would be the choice , if you honestly think from your observations of the players style and your gut that you have the best hand.

[MountStHelen]

Yes, I fully agree with you. I've started doing the "Hero raise" lately and I think it's pretty effective. Make sure that you do it against the right Villains.

[turtle82]

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My advice is if from your observations of the player your gut is telling you you've got the better hands, you should probably call, a raise, might bluff em out of the pot,

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I disagree. I believe you either fold or raise at that point. Its the river, if you "feel you have the better hand", what do you mean by "bluffing them out of the pot". If they have a better hand than you, like 44 or a chopping ace high, you would want them to be "bluffed out".

If you feel the villian called you down with a hand he wont be able to let go of, then let it go. but if you sense weakness and think hes betting at you only because you checked the turn, or you feel that you have the best hand then I feel you should put a strong raise in.

[Jkemp]

all im saying is if you don't feel you have the best hand fold, if your uncertain but have a gut feeling you migt have best hand than just flat call, because say the villian was slow playin the nine, say he called with a hand like a-9 (just a random hand he could probably call the raise preflop with and hit the nine)suited or somthin, than he might have just been waiting to put on appearance of a steal on the river, or yes it could be a split pot if he has just an ace, either way a raise would be pointless , since its split and in that situation it seems unlikely a bluff would work unless he thought hero had higher pair in the pocket. And im certain at that point a re-raise and if i had , like you said he could have 44 or a higher pocket pair than the dueces (which is every pocket pair,lol) i doubt he'll be bluffed off, so a bluff may work against a week player but a majority of the time in this situation i think it'll just backfire or end up with a flat call and a split pot. when i said a raise might bluff him out of the pot, if you had finnished the sentance from what i said, i mean it may work but more likely it'll backfire, so since your so deep into the hand you should just flat call.(that is if you feel ur hand has good showdown value in this case)

[Acevader]

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all im saying is if you don't feel you have the best hand fold, if your uncertain but have a gut feeling you migt have best hand than just flat call

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See, that's where I'm coming from. Lets take a really simplistic view.

Lets say:

33.3% of the time villain has a great hand and will call/re-raise.

33.3% of the time villain has a so-so hand that might be slightly better or slightly worse than ours but he'll seldom, if ever, call a raise.

33.3% of the time villain has nothing and will definitely lose if you call and fold if you raise.

By calling you lose when he's got something, win when he's got nothing and lose sometimes when it's pretty close.

My argument is that where you feel villain has a good chance of being in the middle category you should raise. That way you only lose if you are wrong and he has a very good hand or makes a wild call.

I hope you see what I'm saying? By raising you turn all the little 'marginal' situations into your favour.

[TC Franks]

I know I'm changing the parameters a bit, but if you think the oppoent is on a hand that he can be chased from, wouldn't betting the turn be a better (at least more economical) way to get him off of it?

At this point, I think the low pairs will give you credit for something like 10-10 or JJ--as long as it's not something you do every single time you miss hitting AK. The AJ and AQ type hands will likely fold here helping you avoid having them hit a J or Q on the river.

Obviously, you have to have a feel for your opponents. Constantly continuation betting on the flop and turn could be disasterous, but if you've decided to reraise a river bet, I think you could fairly easily make this same determination on the turn.

If he/she calls the turn bet, the river will probably just be checked down unless he/she has a hand. I don't think AQ or AJ is going to move at you here. If someone called you on the turn with something, they'll probably call you again on the river unless some scare card comes up. (Of course those scare cards could be just what the opponent needed.)

To answer the exact scenario you outlined, I can only say that it largely has to be based on the opponent. If you're not sure about the opponent, gathering info on the turn is critical, I think.

[TC Franks]

well said

[Acevader]

Dude, did you just type 'well said' to your own post?!? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

TC you are right about betting the turn. I'll often bet the turn again if I think villain is trying to showdown a weak pair or float. That's another discussion I guess.

I'm talking about those times where, one way or another, you are at the river and get the feeling your ace high or little pair, etc might be worth a call but expect to be beaten by the hand or two above it a fair bit. Is there merit in just raising these up that way you take out all of villains bluffs and all of his marginal hands and (usually) only get called or raised when he as a very real hand that he was betting for value.

[TC Franks]

lol, no I read your latest reply after answering your initial question. I liked the reply and plan to maybe add some of this type of river play.

One thing I was thinking about in your reply though, is I think it will be important to recall how the pre-flop betting played out. If you aggressively re-raised with AK, suggesting an AA or KK type of hand, then a continuation bet, followed by a check on the turn, is going to look a lot more like AK than AA/KK. If I'm your opponent, I'm going to be inclined to put a lot of players on AK in this type of situation.

A reraise will be met with respect but I will give the board a long look over. What could have he hit? If player represented AA/KK/AK pre-flop, I'm going to be hard-pressed to believe he hit trips if the highest card out there is an eight or a nine.

I may call a re-raise with middle pair in this spot as KK and AA are usually not going to slow down on the turn. Maybe they will, but not often.

I think if you're going to add this river move into your repetoire, you may want to add the occassional turn check when you have something like AA/KK for variance. It will not be something you routinely do, but people may see it and give you credit for it when you make this river move.

(Obviously, this would be a regular game, or game where you play long enough for others to see a lot of hands.)

I like to have my bluffs match my actual plays when I have a hand. Checking turn with the best hand might accomplish that (of course first time JJ hits a river J to beat you after checking the turn, you'll be hating it.) But I like the idea of matching play and bluffs. It gets my real hands action and makes my bluffs believable.

Also I think some responders make a bit of a mistake by lumping all low-level players into a category of "fools," I like to think some of us out there are all right, lol. A scan of the rankings can be of some help in this situation.