Proper Bet Sizing w/ KK short-stacked and OOP in a 4/180

Andrew1593 · #1 08-02-2007, 08:21 PM

As per Cornell's suggestion, I've been reading the anthology sticky lately and focusing my attention on the Controlling Pot Size section. In it, Jason Strasser is quoted as saying "Tourney players are often too concerned with giving free cards and pricing players out of draws, when the really important thing is to maximize value versus hands that can pay you off and get away from hands you are behind, instead of collecting a few extra bets when your opponent is making a continuation bet and then folding trash."

In thinking about this, I've been paying more attention to how I play premium pairs when I'm short-stacked near the end of MTTs. Being short-stacked obviously limits your strategic options, and I've never been interested in getting cute with hands like AK, JJ, or even QQ. However, I feel that AA and KK are strong enough hands that I'd like to get action and not simply shove and steal the blinds. In HoHII (p. 156), Dan gives an example of inflection point play with TT. He argues for shoving over a few limpers with an M of 15 (soon to be 7.5). In his discussion, however, he says "If my pair were aces, kings, or queens, a smaller bet looks right. I'll still probably chase out a couple of players, but someone might read my hesitancy to go all-in as weakness, and look me up."

Here I have a similar situation. It's near the end of a 4/180, I have an M of 18 (soon to be 14), and I pick up KK in the BB after three players limp in. I opt to raise to 4xBB, which chases away the SB. No real reads on my two opponents, they seem to be fairly straightforward players, so I put them on middle pairs or high cards.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero (t4240)
UTG (t2676)
UTG+1 (t2941)
MP1 (t2992)
MP2 (t3059)
CO (t3734)
Button (t5733)
SB (t3450)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls t150, 1 fold, Button calls t150, SB completes, Hero raises to t600, MP2 calls t450, Button calls t450, SB folds.

Flop: (t1950) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

Argue if you want about the size of my PF raise (since this thread is about controlling the size of the pot), but I'm more interested in the size of a flop bet here. I don't think a check-raise is a viable option since the flop is pretty wet, but I'm looking to follow Strasser's advice and maximize my value versus hands I'm ahead and minimize my losses to hands I'm behind. So at this point, we have:

Hands I'm ahead of:
PP's (66 to QQ)
any ace (except A2)
other overcards (say, QJ+)
two hearts
gutshot draws (A3 being the most likely)

Hands I'm behind:
22, 55, A2, AA
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (about a coinflip, depending on the third player's holding)
(3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is an unlikely holding as is any 2 besides A2)

In my betting, then, I'm looking to get value mostly from overcards (who hopefully think they have 6 outs) and middle pairs (who hopefully think I'm drawing to 6 outs). The best draw against me (excluding the OESFD) is the flush draw, which needs pot odds of 1.9 to 1. But, taking Strasser's advice, I'm thinking I want to be less concerned with pricing out these draws, especially since reverse implied odds come into play here, and missed draws will have to call an extra bet on the turn.

Long story short, I'm thinking a good bet size here is somewhere around 1200. That gives MP2 odds of 2.6-to-1, but it also pot commits him and invites him to reraise AI with a middle pair or perhaps even overcards. If he cold calls, of course, the button is getting great odds to continue (3.6-to-1). Still, anything more than 1200 and I think I'm chasing away the hands I'm ahead of and still not doing much to price out the button. Even if I shove here and MP2 calls, the button has his odds to draw to a flush (2.2-to-1) and doesn't have to worry about missing the turn. A bet of 1200 is more likely to be called and it leaves me with 2400 behind to get in on the turn.

But I'm open to suggestion. Who has arguments for other bet sizes? Again, I'd like to focus on the flop, not pre-flop, but any and all comments are welcome.

Sherman · #2 08-02-2007, 08:38 PM

I'd bet like 1K or 1.1K and shove most turns (probably only check Ace turns). If the Ah, I might still shove.

The only other bet I think I like is something weak like 600 hoping to get raised by a mid-pair like 99. Then you 3-bet shove the flop. This is super sexy if the first person calls, and 2nd one raises, then you shove.

Edit #2: You aren't really that short-stacked (at least in a tournament sense) btw.

bigentx · #3 08-02-2007, 08:40 PM

Bet 12-1400 on flop and shove basicly every turn.

mflip · #4 08-02-2007, 10:45 PM

You are looking to set up a good sized shove on the turn. If you bet 1100 here you'll have ~1/2 pot shove which is fine.

Dave D · #5 08-02-2007, 11:52 PM

Yeah 28 BB isn't short at all.

With that many villians, PF I like making it 800 to go at least, kinda depends on how the table is playing. Otherwise your thinking is right on, and I agree with Sherman pretty much.