Tilt $1k, Overpair from EP, Flop Decision

[mikeJ]

FullTiltPoker Game #3106569532: $1K Monday (22389789), Table 27 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:17:17 ET - 2007/07/30

Seat 1: jguthrie20 (1,615)
Seat 2: rjmdog (2,965)
Seat 3: GrampaJeff (2,925)
Seat 4: therolloffkid (6,190)
Seat 5: Al VOGEL (2,705)
Seat 6: x2then (6,790)
Seat 7: Kaintd77 (2,720)
Seat 8: yoren8 (3,180)
Seat 9: BrightGreenPoop (4,580)
Al VOGEL posts the small blind of 15
x2then posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yoren8 [T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Kaintd77 folds
yoren8 raises to 105
BrightGreenPoop folds
jguthrie20 calls 105
rjmdog folds
GrampaJeff folds
therolloffkid folds
Al VOGEL folds
x2then has 15 seconds left to act
x2then folds
*** FLOP *** [6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
yoren8 has 15 seconds left to act
yoren8 bets 200
jguthrie20 raises to 480
yoren8 ?

Not much of a read.

[gobboboy]

Fold.

[mlagoo]

id tend to fold here in a live game, but i wouldnt online. i think, readless, its too difficult to put the guy on squarely a set, and i think its very rare that he plays an overpair like this (typically if hes going to slowplay preflop hes just going to cram this flop).

if you were in position i would just call, here i'd probably just cram.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
id tend to fold here in a live game, but i wouldnt online. i think, readless, its too difficult to put the guy on squarely a set, and i think its very rare that he plays an overpair like this (typically if hes going to slowplay preflop hes just going to cram this flop).

if you were in position i would just call, here i'd probably just cram.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.

Keep posting all goodlike.

[sketchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[The-Donk]

Call and see the turn

[Yuv]

gobbo, why are we folding? Is he almost minraising with a set, or do you think we were beat preflop already?

[luckychewy]

this tournament gets lot of sat entrants and i can easily see this guy having a worse pair for value or a draw(or maybe a total bluff). i'd stick it in now being oop w/ a lot of bad turns and the fact that i can definitely see him calling w/ worse. i would definitely not fold here.

[JayPez]

From my limited experience of this tourney, people often play this really tight early.

Calling here is really bad imo, its push or fold.

This guy called off 7% of his stack preflop to a psb raise from ep.

66+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+

I doubt he’ll mess around with many other cards but of course you have to give a % chance to that. I think an unknown will often call with kk+ here to try and get more value since they need to chip up with half the average stack.

He also just put 33% of his stack in the pot, I doubt he’s folding and leaving himself with 1k.

maybe he’ll raise / call, raise / fold with 77 88, tt is really unlikely and the other pairs your in really bad shape against.

I think with his stack size he’ll rr ak a lot of the time preflop rather then wait for a missed flop to raise it?

I think fold but I’ll do some math to back it up.

------------Now Math skip if u want--------------------

the pots 255+200+480 = 935

if you push 1310 and he folds (unlikely) u win 935
if you push and he calls for 1030 more then u win 1965
if u push and u lose then u lose 1310.

If you give him a 10% folding chance I played around with the numbers to work out what equity u need.

10% he folds = 94chips
33% of the time you call and win = 649 30
57% of the time u call and lose = 747

these figures are –4 chips, pretty much break even.

So to find out the equity

33% * 1.1 = 36%

-------------------Math over----------------

this is the most likely range I can come up with that he’s raise calling to make it +ev (39% equity)

66+,AQs+,AdJd,KdQd
However a lot of the hands you beat are less likely weighted and the ones that beat you are more likely imo. If he is raise/calling 77 or 88 makes a huge decision on the hand. If he is then its definitely +ev if hes not its not.

Overall I think it’s a fold because if u give a real calling range of hands that are likely to raise u in this its –ev.

(88+,66,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,KdQd) 27% equity.

Fold

[sinderg]

did ya see how this guy lost 1/2 his stack.
cronic limper or just bad play ?

with how short he is id fold flop.
also when people say see the turn, what turn are you ok on and not ok on considering how much hes got back? .,