Bluff 3 bet river?

sharpie · #1 07-30-2007, 03:09 AM

45/20 over 20 hands.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero...

NinaWilliams · #2 07-30-2007, 03:28 AM

This looks like the way a lot of people would play an A. Youre pretty much laying 4.5-1 that he has 62-Q6 or 22-55(I think bigger pairs 3 bet pf) AND decided to raise the river as a bluff. I cant say that I like it, but I hope it worked.

BigBadBabar · #3 07-30-2007, 04:22 AM

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

thorleif · #4 07-30-2007, 04:35 AM

Who's repping the ace more believably here?

Doesn't he 3bet the preflop with most aces? And you usually aren't going to b3b many aces on the flop?

I don't think I have the heart to fire this one wow.

bobhalford · #5 07-30-2007, 10:46 AM

I guess you're investing two bets hoping that he doesn't have an ace or a ten, and will fold those hands to a 3-bet. I think hero is clearly repping an ace here, so the villain may even fold a ten (which he should raise the turn with).

I think there may be enough chance hero can get the BB to fold a better hand here (88/99/Kx). It only has to work like one out of 5 times. Question is, if villain had King high or 88/99 two out of 5 times, would he fold the river at least one out of those two times?

So I imagine it's fairly close. Personally I'd just fold because I don't see many worse hands raise/calling this river or better hands raise/folding.

This one is interesting because this guy doesn't look like he has an ace and hero is representing one strongly. One thing that would tempt a Ten to call here is hero's flop play, which suggests an overpair more than an ace. This fact works to undermine the credibility of hero's river play. But if villain has a hand that beats hero's that doesn't contain a T or A, he should fold. The question is how often does he raise the river with those hands, and how often does he call anyway even when it's clear hero has aces full?

MartynasD · #6 07-30-2007, 12:49 PM

WOW.
It`s hot.I say fold.But if he can fold T here???i probably call u here with K high.

Heisenb3rg · #7 07-30-2007, 01:33 PM

No one fold a T. Villain doesnt have a T.

When villain raises this river he MAY have K high but unliekly, an ace is defintily a solid part of his range.. But so is air that was paired like 68 and now is sitting with 8 high.
Like the 3-bet, id do the same... When I do this stuff I often run into the hand I fear.. But ive also folded the best hand on occasion.. Don't know if its ended up profitable in the long run or what.

sethypooh21 · #8 07-30-2007, 02:04 PM

Need a better read - ie have to have actually seen the guy raise/fold on the turn/river before - to try this.

jba · #9 07-30-2007, 02:07 PM

"But ive also folded the best hand on occasion"

how would you know this.

how are we repping an ace here on the flop?

Leader · #10 07-30-2007, 04:25 PM

Let's consider villain's range on the river:

-Ax is inconsistent with the pf and flop plays, but very consistent with the turn and river plays. We've all seen people do dumb stuff on the flop like this with Ax though and maybe he doesn't 3-bet small Aces. So Ax is quite possible.
-Tx This is something he could easily have. Lot's of players would call on the turn here and raise the river either because they're afraid the A might scare you or they've missed their anti-FPS pill today.
-Bluff. Possible as well. Maybe he also had a PP/6x/98/87 or is just bad (we don't have much of a read).

The other thing to consider is the metagame implications of this play. In all likelihood, these aren't much of a factor at PS 5/10, but if you were playing in a smaller player pool and planned to be at this table for quite a while, this play could have some value beyond the immediate.

In the end, this move has to work a little less then 1/5 of the time. Most guys will reflex call a T here. Plus your play doesn't really fit with an ace if he really thinks about it. So he'll almost always call thinking he at least has a chance to split.

That just leaves a bluff. Estimating bluff frequencies is all about experience and knowing how the guys in your games typically play. I don't play stars 5/10 so I can't really help you there. I suspect that a relative unknown has a bluff here less then 20% though.