continue bluffing on the river?

[Scipio]

Villain is thinking TAG, regular

History was that i checked on a KQ board wie AQ and made a valuebet on the turn. So i thought i should check again, fold to a turnbet and bluffbet the turn if he checks to me.



Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $373.50
CO: $1.199.55
Hero: $685.00
SB: $272.80
BB: $1.030.65

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $30</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($69, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($69, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $50</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $150</font>, BB calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($369, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

[DJ Sensei]

just bet flop

and yes i would definitely fire again on the river, your QJ just filled up!

[Scipio]

and how much do you bet on this river?

[john kane]

lets say software error and you hand flips into QQ for quads on the river and it shows that your opponent has A9.

how much do you value bet?

whatever your answer to that is, let's now pretend you know your 10J is behind but don't know what he has, what amount different do you now bet to get him to fold, whereas previously you wanted him to call?

my point, albeit a weird way of making it, is that sometimes we bet here thinking 'i have the nuts, i will bet pot/overbet pot to rep a bluff' or 'i have the nuts, i will value bet 2/3 pot' but on the flip side 'he has me beat, i will bet pot/overbet pot to get him to fold' or 'he has me beat, i will value bet 2/3 to rep a value bet with a v.strong hand and he should fold his ace'.

my point is that all sorts of reasoning can come up in our brains, all which justify a different sized bet for a different purpose. the only variable is our opponent and the history we have had with our opponent.
Thus you need to make a judgement solely based on what you have seen from your opponent to know which bet he is more likely to call with and which he is more likely to fold, in addition to which style of bets you have made and what that has lead to you showing.

so in summary, you cannot get a 'correct' reply by posting, it has to be entirely based on your history and read you have on the opponent in addition to your image.

[jackflashdrive]

[ QUOTE ]
lets say software error and you hand flips into QQ for quads on the river and it shows that your opponent has A9.

how much do you value bet?

whatever your answer to that is, let's now pretend you know your 10J is behind but don't know what he has, what amount different do you now bet to get him to fold, whereas previously you wanted him to call?

my point, albeit a weird way of making it, is that sometimes we bet here thinking 'i have the nuts, i will bet pot/overbet pot to rep a bluff' or 'i have the nuts, i will value bet 2/3 pot' but on the flip side 'he has me beat, i will bet pot/overbet pot to get him to fold' or 'he has me beat, i will value bet 2/3 to rep a value bet with a v.strong hand and he should fold his ace'.

my point is that all sorts of reasoning can come up in our brains, all which justify a different sized bet for a different purpose. the only variable is our opponent and the history we have had with our opponent.
Thus you need to make a judgement solely based on what you have seen from your opponent to know which bet he is more likely to call with and which he is more likely to fold, in addition to which style of bets you have made and what that has lead to you showing.

so in summary, you cannot get a 'correct' reply by posting, it has to be entirely based on your history and read you have on the opponent in addition to your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except that players at particular levels have general tendencies, and so even if we have 0 history with a particular opponent or even a particular level, there is always a 'right answer' to be culled from the collective experience of other players who have experience at a particular limit.

As in, "the typical player has a weak A here and will fold [call] often enough [not often enough] to make this river a +EV bluff [-EV bluff]."

Bayes theorem.

[jackflashdrive]

I would bet the flop because (1) you take it down often enough to make it profitable, and (2) you don't want him stealing it on turn when you check through flop and (3) you get two streets of value to bend him over if you get called and spike a K on turn. And you can check behind turn if you miss, which still leaves you the possibility to bluff on river.

[john kane]

urgh not bayes theorem, i remember cramming that for one of my economics exams (obv remember nothing about it now).

personally i think the typical player who has a weak ace will call too often to make a standard 2/3 to pot bet not worthwhile.

but personally i'd rather wait till i had better than a weak ace, find out what he calls with, and then make a decision like this, rather than basing a collective generalisation of players, which itself may be wrong, to a single player.

[Scipio]

Very nice post @john kane
But i have the problem that most of the time i don´t remember the history between villain and me.

@Jackflahdrive
What do you do with KQ in this spot?
If check then how do you balance your line?

[jackflashdrive]

[ QUOTE ]
personally i think the typical player who has a weak ace will call too often to make a standard 2/3 to pot bet not worthwhile.

but personally i'd rather wait till i had better than a weak ace, find out what he calls with, and then make a decision like this, rather than basing a collective generalisation of players, which itself may be wrong, to a single player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasoning is 'don't bluff in this spot until you know more about what he will fold'. But 'don't bluff' is just as much of an action as 'bluff,' and needs to be equally well grounded in available information. That information might be specific to the player (ideally), or involve base-rates for a given level (not ideal but better than nothing when forced to make a decision which we cannot avoid).

[ QUOTE ]

@Jackflahdrive
What do you do with KQ in this spot?
If check then how do you balance your line?

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually c-bet on any A-high flop. I only check behind if I think I will get check-raised by a mix of good and bad hands (and I will also check behind in such situations with a weak A too).