FTP NL100 - Value bet this river?

[tubasteve]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $162.90
BB: $240.25
UTG: $67.25
Hero (CO): $103.50
BTN: $127.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($4.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $4.50</font>, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($13.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $13.50</font>, Hero calls $13.50

River: ($40.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets...</font>

Do you guys value bet this river, and if so for how much? Villain is a 20/10/1.29. F/T/R aggression factors are 4.4/4/3 respectively. He seems like a bad TAG, but he has a lot of money on the couple tables I have with him.

[ManChild]

Don't minraise PF NOOOOOB!

As played, this is a thin value bet, can be KQ here a lot, you are probably only getting value from QT and JT

i think i like a check behind here. even though it might be a little weak

[RUDIKULOUS]

Seems too thin unless he can put you on one of the busted draws and call with JT or something. I would check usually.

[Novles]

I guess you can bet, but only b/c of the minraise pf, putting the low KxXd hands in his range. If you had potted pf, I like a check, since the only real hands he could have that we beat that may call a bet are JT/QT.

[Novles]

oh, and how can each street agf be more than his total?

[Worm75]

With size of the pot, I can see a value bet here of like 25, but like Noyles said the only hand that looks you up in the QT/JT here. But that spot does come up enough to merit a bet here I think.

PS. I'm assuming PF was a misclick???

[NoahSD]

Nah.. check. He checks some better hands on this river and it's a tough call with worse.

The aggression factor thing is because it includes preflop.

[Novles]

hmmm, my PT and hud show pf agf too. How do you turn that off?

[nuggetz87]

[ QUOTE ]
Nah.. check. He checks some better hands on this river and it's a tough call with worse.


[/ QUOTE ]

[tubasteve]

pf was a misclick. my damn bet pot script didnt kick in fast enough and i was 8-tabling.

fwiw, villain is the same guy in tripledrawrocks' thread...and TDR coincidentally is one of my roommates, living with me, manchild (who posted above) and AMT (another random 2p2er)