River bluff raise

sharpie · #1 07-24-2007, 03:32 PM

56/8/4.2 over 25. Villain will bet any draw here. In a previous hand he open limped 53s OTB, I raised the SB with AJ, HU he called flop+turn with bottom pair and failed to value bet the river on 36629r board.

Anyone play the flop or turn differently?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button folds.

Turn: (4 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises...

thepizzlefosho · #2 07-24-2007, 03:45 PM

do 56/8s ever fold on the river? In my experience no. Do you have any WTSD numbers on this guy? I like this raise against a thinking-lag or a total nit, but I feel like the kind of player who is playing that many hands is probably more curious on this river than he is scared.

I just don't see you winning this 22% of the time that you need to make it profitable.

detruncate · #3 07-24-2007, 03:46 PM

If his range contains a lot of draws it's probably worth a shot even if he doesn't ever fold any pairs given that the alternative requires us to surrender all our equity.

Tryptamean · #4 07-24-2007, 03:46 PM

Yeah, I think this works sometimes, but not enough. And he seems aggro enough to bluff 3-bet you if he is set on winning the pot.

I would like a flop raise to clean up pair outs.

sharpie · #5 07-24-2007, 03:47 PM

I don't think he folds a pair, but I think he'll check the river with a hand like Tx judging from the limited read, although I could see him turning 5x into a bluff.

yourface · #6 07-24-2007, 03:47 PM

I'd like it more if we could more credibly rep the ace (ie if we were the button) but I doubt that this guy is thinking on that level anyways.

what % of his range are pairs and better busted draws that will fold? mess around with pstove. you need him to fold a better hand >22% of the time

edit: wrong %

secretprankster · #7 07-24-2007, 03:48 PM

It seems close because there are a TON of no-pair draws he can have. But he also seems to be the type of player who could call with QJ here just out of curiosity, plus the fact that this seems like too obvious a spot to bluffraise since everything missed and you're really only "repping" the NFD. 7:2 though, I can't say I hate it, but I just generally don't try bluffing these guys without more info.

Play everything else the same though.

emocracy · #8 07-24-2007, 03:50 PM

Raise the flop to isolate the SB, maybe free up some outs, and take control of the hand?

I'm new here, but it seems like this would have to work 1 out of 3 times to become +EV. If you've seen him bluff the river after missing his draw then this might be a good line.

secretprankster · #9 07-24-2007, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he folds a pair, but I think he'll check the river with a hand like Tx judging from the limited read, although I could see him turning 5x into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll never ever fold a pair here imo, and I would say he bets any pair on the river basically 100% (from what I "know" about him).

yourface · #10 07-24-2007, 03:52 PM

trypta where do you draw the line for a pot being big enough that cleaning up a couple pair outs is more important than preserving our implied odds?

imo this pot is too small