NL50: Bet River?

[a breath of air]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $7.60
Hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $77.65
MP: $44.00
CO: $50.45
BTN: $110.55

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 47/13/4(135).</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A J (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, UTG calls $2.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($6) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 4 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, UTG calls $5.00

Turn: ($16) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.75</font>, UTG calls $12.75

River: ($41.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ???

[reef2287]

i like a b/f, 2/3s of pot, looking somewhat like a missed flush but getting called by weaker aces-- with 47 percent VPIP but only 13 percent raise, its likely hes raising ak aq from UTG but he still can hold a4, a5, or a3 or small pockets as those are top 40 percent of hands, but i still think we're better here more than worse

[ajmargarine]

You can't b/f given stacks.

OP: I would need a feel for villain b4 deciding what to do on river. nh up to river.

[a breath of air]

[ QUOTE ]
i like a b/f, 2/3s of pot, looking somewhat like a missed flush but getting called by weaker aces-- with 47 percent VPIP but only 13 percent raise, its likely hes raising ak aq from UTG but he still can hold a4, a5, or a3 or small pockets as those are top 40 percent of hands, but i still think we're better here more than worse

[/ QUOTE ]

$29.75 effective stacks on river.

[a breath of air]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't b/f given stacks.

OP: I would need a feel for villain b4 deciding what to do on river. nh up to river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain's showdown stats look normal 23/53. Bet river is 26.

[vixticator]

Very marginal situation. With that high AF the fact that he is calling down doesn't please me. Looks like he probably has Ax. The problem is the pot size on turn once you bet is enough that he is shoving river if you check.

My thought is to CRAI on turn because (1) he will probably bet and fold to raise, (2) we still have a ton of outs if he has a made hand, (3) it's possible he will call with the worst hand, and (4) any river not a diamond is hard to play. Does this make sense?

[a breath of air]

[ QUOTE ]
Very marginal situation. With that high AF the fact that he is calling down doesn't please me. Looks like he probably has Ax. The problem is the pot size on turn once you bet is enough that he is shoving river if you check.

My thought is to CRAI on turn because (1) he will probably bet and fold to raise, (2) we still have a ton of outs if he has a made hand, (3) it's possible he will call with the worst hand, and (4) any river not a diamond is hard to play. Does this make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes this makes sense and I like this line also since he or she is so aggressive.

[Emperor]

[ QUOTE ]
Very marginal situation. With that high AF the fact that he is calling down doesn't please me. Looks like he probably has Ax. The problem is the pot size on turn once you bet is enough that he is shoving river if you check.

My thought is to CRAI on turn because (1) he will probably bet and fold to raise, (2) we still have a ton of outs if he has a made hand, (3) it's possible he will call with the worst hand, and (4) any river not a diamond is hard to play. Does this make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

(1) We don't want to fold out worse hands, we want them to call. We definitely don't fold out two pr or better imo.

(3) Not sure if any worse hands call a CR ai (KK,QQ,AT, a draw?)

The river action is really hard to play imo.

If it is a diamond do you check to induce/let him bet smaller flush?

If it is a non diamond:
do you check call a shove?
do you block?
do you value bet ai with TP Jack kicker?
If so on what river cards?

As aggro as he is I try to CR ai on the flop.
I like the turn bet as it disguises that hero has FD also.
When he calls the turn I get really conservative and probably check a non diamond river and puke if he shoves.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
(1) We don't want to fold out worse hands, we want them to call. We definitely don't fold out two pr or better imo.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm not trying to fold out worse hands, more like gaining a bet when he bluffs (huge AF) and isn't calling our lead. I think Ax calls the flop and will call CRAI most of the time, this player doesn't appear to be terribly smart.

[corsakh]

I check