Looking again at TASR

[ski]

Anyone still holding or buying this?

Despite its big recent gains it seems like a buy. A lot of international orders are coming in and their R+D department seems strong.

I don't see any reason that it wouldn't go up to 40+ again except for the "tasr kills people" thing, but I feel that has already come out when tasr plummeted a few years back and the people buying tasers have accepted that and don't mind if there is actually a small risk even it were indisputably proved (I don't even think that will happen).

PS If Mr Sklansky reads this and wants to chime in I would appreciate it.



-Ski

[DesertCat]

You want to pay $14 per share for a company with a net loss of 4 cents per share over the last 9 quarters?

That earned one cent per share last quarter (300 PE!)?

The most it ever earned in a single year was 33 cents (over a 40 PE at todays prices) and that was years ago.

That posted the same sales levels in 2006 that it did in 2004? Gee that growth rate is really outstanding.

That has the same management team in place that was forced to pay $17M to settle numerous suits over misleading their own shareholders? That sells shares like crazy at any opportunity (they apparently don't seem to think TASR's future is so bright), and uses the company to fund their own charter air service?

That is facing 54 product liability suits? As well as numerous other suits including one with their former patent attorney.

I'm not saying TASR isn't a buy, maybe they are about to turn the corner (finally) and start making real profits. But you haven't done 1/100 of the homework necessary to determine whether that's true or not.

And I like the product and think the liability suits are bogus. But they have a product that inherently creates liability suits on a regular basis, and a mgmt team that inherently creates other problems on a regular basis. No family is going to believe their meth-addled son/husband/brother's heart went out from natural causes after being tasered, they are going to blame TASR and sue. This is an ongoing business expense until the end of time, which is how long the mgmt team will be milking this company.

Of the 5,000+ public companies in the U.S. market alone, this was the best you could do?

[CrushinFelt]

Is there really that large of a demand for tasers? I know nothing about them (other than they are freaking cool). Is this something that, once proven safe, could take over as the weapon of choice for police forces? What do they use now to settle someone down or stop running? Is it like I see on COPS where it's fat guys running down coke heads? Give these men some tasers!

[pig4bill]

[ QUOTE ]
And I like the product and think the liability suits are bogus. But they have a product that inherently creates liability suits on a regular basis, and a mgmt team that inherently creates other problems on a regular basis. No family is going to believe their meth-addled son/husband/brother's heart went out from natural causes after being tasered, they are going to blame TASR and sue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having 50,000 volts go through your body is hardly "natural causes" unless you consider being hit by lighning "natural causes". It's one hell of a coincidence that a minute after getting hit by 2 or 3 tasers that a relatively young person suddenly dies.

The worst thing about tasers is some cops are taking the chicken-sh!t way out of dealing with a problem. They are too quick to zap people instead of doing their job. There are cases of tasering 80 year old ladies!

FWIW I agree with your other comments about TASR except for them having a chance to turn the corner.

[David Sklansky]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone still holding or buying this?

Despite its big recent gains it seems like a buy. A lot of international orders are coming in and their R+D department seems strong.

I don't see any reason that it wouldn't go up to 40+ again except for the "tasr kills people" thing, but I feel that has already come out when tasr plummeted a few years back and the people buying tasers have accepted that and don't mind if there is actually a small risk even it were indisputably proved (I don't even think that will happen).

PS If Mr Sklansky reads this and wants to chime in I would appreciate it.



-Ski

[/ QUOTE ]

I still own the same ten thousand shares that I had when I recommended TASR at about 7.80 about six months ago. Ditto for the thirty thousand shares of IMMR that I mentioned shortly before, when it was 6.80 (now 17.50).

For those who continue to say this was luck, I first point to the fact that I recommended no other stocks (not counting winners many years ago), and then ask this question: What is the probability that two randomly picked stocks, trading above five dollars, both with market caps in the hundreds of millions, would move up 85% and 180% in less than eight months. Since they are not in the same industry I'm thinking the parlay is one in a thousand at least. That's not statistically significant?

As far as the concept of "doing your homework", while I can't argue with it, I have to say that those who put too much emphasis on that remind me of blackjack players who memorize complicated counting systems, while more successful players concentrate on putting on acts that will get the dealer to deal five more cards on average. While they use their simple plus minus. Or the great poker player who studies the minutae of his game, but doesn't choose the easiest table.

[CrushinFelt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone still holding or buying this?

Despite its big recent gains it seems like a buy. A lot of international orders are coming in and their R+D department seems strong.

I don't see any reason that it wouldn't go up to 40+ again except for the "tasr kills people" thing, but I feel that has already come out when tasr plummeted a few years back and the people buying tasers have accepted that and don't mind if there is actually a small risk even it were indisputably proved (I don't even think that will happen).

PS If Mr Sklansky reads this and wants to chime in I would appreciate it.



-Ski

[/ QUOTE ]

I still own the same ten thousand shares that I had when I recommended TASR at about 7.80 about six months ago. Ditto for the thirty thousand shares of IMMR that I mentioned shortly before, when it was 6.80 (now 17.50).

For those who continue to say this was luck, I first point to the fact that I recommended no other stocks (not counting winners many years ago), and then ask this question: What is the probability that two randomly picked stocks, trading above five dollars, both with market caps in the hundreds of millions, would move up 85% and 180% in less than eight months. Since they are not in the same industry I'm thinking the parlay is one in a thousand at least. That's not statistically significant?

As far as the concept of "doing your homework", while I can't argue with it, I have to say that those who put too much emphasis on that remind me of blackjack players who memorize complicated counting systems, while more successful players concentrate on putting on acts that will get the dealer to deal five more cards on average. While they use their simple plus minus. Or the great poker player who studies the minutae of his game, but doesn't choose the easiest table.

[/ QUOTE ]

So yes to holding, but would you buy it today?

[ahnuld]

Halfway through your post I was going to reply that those gains are not statistically significant but you already addressed that, and they aren't.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]

As far as the concept of "doing your homework", while I can't argue with it, I have to say that those who put too much emphasis on that remind me of blackjack players who memorize complicated counting systems, while more successful players concentrate on putting on acts that will get the dealer to deal five more cards on average. While they use their simple plus minus. Or the great poker player who studies the minutae of his game, but doesn't choose the easiest table.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it appears we are destined to be on opposite sides of the fence on the whole "doing your homework" issue, I have to tell you how much I appreciate these little asides in your posts. You just gave me a nice insight into card counting that I had not thought about.

But back to our many month old argument. If the greatest (most successful over the long run) investor relied on "doing his homework", and you tried it, and it worked really well for you, and had a consistent logical framework that explained why it worked, wouldn't you be as preachy as I?

[yellowbastard]

So if you were going to do all the necessary homework on this stock where would you start and what areas would you look at? I can think of three main areas off the top of my head that are necessary but there may be others

1. Product/ industry analysis
2. Evaluation of management
3. Valuation

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]


1. Product/ industry analysis
2. Evaluation of management
3. Valuation

[/ QUOTE ]

1+2 +a few other things=3

Barron