Flush + OESD, lots of action, 150 BB deep

Poker monkey · #1 07-20-2007, 12:01 AM

Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $81
UTG+1: $103.45
Hero: $233.75
Button: $38
SB: $142.25
BB: $157.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises to $5.5, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($27.5, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $21, SB calls, BB raises to $111.5, 2 folds, Hero...

plako · #2 07-20-2007, 01:35 AM

I fold this.

You're small dog against naked set (60-40), but if SB continues he probably has better flush draw and/or straight draw and that would be very bad for your equity. More outs to the nuts would be needed to continue from here.

alavet · #3 07-20-2007, 01:57 AM

hum humm
as someone said, there is a *pretty standart play to check raise with nut flush draw*
i think push have +EV but if you have enough bankroll
if you dont have then fold

Full-Metall · #4 07-20-2007, 02:10 AM

You could be in terrible shape here ie sb having nut flush draw and the other top set. With both calling along you are in terrible [censored], drawing to a few outs for the straight. I fold it.

Silent A · #5 07-20-2007, 02:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this.

You're small dog against naked set (60-40), but if SB continues he probably has better flush draw and/or straight draw and that would be very bad for your equity. More outs to the nuts would be needed to continue from here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Better straight and/or flush draws aren't the problem because Hero's QQ has most of them currently beat. Hero's biggest concern is the K-high flush draw (it's actually much worse than the A-high or naked KKxx).

I don't think the difference between push and fold is all that much, but I lean towards fold since pushing is a very high variance play for a relatively small +EV in the best of situations.

Edit: oops, missed the SB call. Hero's hand plays much worse 3-way. Not worth it. Fold.

Poker monkey · #6 07-20-2007, 07:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You could be in terrible shape here ie sb having nut flush draw and the other top set. With both calling along you are in terrible [censored], drawing to a few outs for the straight. I fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]Why are you only considering the worst-case scenario?

Poker monkey · #7 07-20-2007, 07:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: oops, missed the SB call. Hero's hand plays much worse 3-way. Not worth it. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]But we don't know that SB will call if I shove - his call could have just added to the sizeable amount of dead money in the pot.

CrushinFelt · #8 07-20-2007, 08:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Edit: oops, missed the SB call. Hero's hand plays much worse 3-way. Not worth it. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]But we don't know that SB will call if I shove - his call could have just added to the sizeable amount of dead money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it does mean more of your outs are likely dead.

jbird · #9 07-20-2007, 09:52 AM

What is BB's range of hands that he's jamming pot over a 3/4 PSB and call?

Any reads on villian?

My guess, at this level, is that it's either KKxx or AhKhxx (or AhKxXhX). We can be really generous and give him 55xx as well (equity doesn't actually change that much).

Your equity is pretty good against that range:

board: Kd3h5h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QhQd2h4d 44.38% 264,350 3,903
KK**,55**,Ah*h** 55.62% 55.62% 331,747 3,903

Villian has 130.7 left and there is 69.5 in the middle.

[ QUOTE ]
But it does mean more of VILLAINS outs are likely dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jam, sit back, and enjoy when the river is a K and he flips up quads.

Full-Metall · #10 07-20-2007, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could be in terrible shape here ie sb having nut flush draw and the other top set. With both calling along you are in terrible [censored], drawing to a few outs for the straight. I fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]Why are you only considering the worst-case scenario?

[/ QUOTE ]
Their range is not far off from this. You're going to be in the worst shape or really bad shape in this pot Realistically, you are going to risk 150bb in a situation where only your straight draw is good, or maybe even hitting the set of queens. I'm imagining the worst case scenario because that's what it probably is. I doubt your flush draw is good and that is reason enough to get out of this pot, even in a 3 way pot.