Nice River, raise or overcalls?

liquidboss · #1 07-20-2007, 06:39 AM

I've come across a few hands like this where I've struggled with the decision to raise or call looking for overcalls with a few people left to act behind me.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $0.50. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

River: (19 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero??

Final Pot: 23 BB

Now if I know for sure the 2 players to follow me will fold and UTG will just call I'm better off going for the overcalls. It also keeps me out of trouble if one of these guys played KK, TT, or 99 in a strange way. I was a little confused when I played it because of UTG's call re-raise on the turn when the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hit. I saw him do the same thing with AA when he spiked a set on the turn a few orbits prior.

By not raising it is possible I am missing out on a few bets from someone who just made their flush. The players between hero and UTG are also very fishy and could easily be trapped calling everything even if capped.

Thanks for the comments in advance...

Niediam · #2 07-20-2007, 06:55 AM

I assume you limped preflop because of the posters? I'm not sure if I make this play or not... I havn't given it much thought as you usually of course don't have multiple posters.

Flop and turn are good.

I definately raise the river because somebody with a flush (and I expect to see one here) will probably call two but won't always raise. I think the discussion would be much more interesting if a black eight fell.

Fantam · #3 07-20-2007, 07:05 AM

I think that I would go for the overcalls.

I would have thought that UTG was more likely to have JT than KK, when he 3-bet the turn, as he didnt raise preflop. Did UTG limp preflop in the hand that he spiked a set of Aces on the turn ?

My hope would be that CO or SB would raise with a made flush, and that I could then 3-bet.

You dont seem to be certain enough that CO and SB would call, to make your river raise worthwhile.

Sushiglutton · #4 07-20-2007, 07:09 AM

I think u should raise. Playing a set like UTG on this dangerous board is very strange. U are probably ahead and there are many opps who may have something they think is worth a call.

marchron · #5 07-20-2007, 10:06 AM

Raise raise raise raise raise. Look at this board! QJ and flushes will pay you off. If you call and both other players call, you get 2 BB. If you raise and even one person calls that, you get 3 BB almost always because UTG is probably not bet/folding here. Plus, he can three bet, you will cap (oh yes, you will cap), and that means mucho $$$ if someone's stuck between you.

halpgr · #6 07-20-2007, 10:19 AM

Raise the river. CO seems willing to call an unlimited number of bets in this hand so he's as likely to call two as call 1. SB seems pretty bad too so raise it.

liquidboss · #7 07-20-2007, 11:10 AM

So raising seems to be the play most are going with. As I was writing this out I figured that would be the correct chice. I think normally I'm auto-raising this, but UTG was a one of those types of players that thinks he's being smart when he makes crazy plays (limping in EP with big pairs followed by call reraising, etc.)

It seems the possible benefits from raising still outweitgh the chance he is crazy-playing a set on the turn or bigger boat on the river. I'm still ahead here almost all of the time, and the chance that I can get one or both of the fish in for 2, 3, or 4 bets on the river is too juicy...

NIX · #8 07-20-2007, 12:04 PM

Raise the river since I think our hand is best. SB donked twice and called two cold once. I think there is a pretty good chance he's going to pay off with whatever at this point.