NL20, I flop bottom set in the SB, but insane flop action

[Ramana]

MP (28/13/1.25) stacked off w TPNK on a monotone flop before. I think he might have an overpair or a TP+FD. BTN's call really freaks me out, he is solid 20/12/1.5

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($19.70)
SB ($18.70)
Hero ($22.65)
UTG ($53.30)
MP ($25.17)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.8</font>, Button calls $0.80, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.60.

Flop: ($2.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $24.37 (All-In)</font>, Button calls $18.90 (All-In), Hero ???

[ralef]

I go broke with bottom set here. I agree with thoughts on MP. Button here knows he's a donk too probably meaning that his hand doesn't have to be 33 or 88. I would guess that he does have 33 or 88, but I would still call...

[brasilstu]

From the action, you might be looking at two overpairs, or someone's got a bigger set,

Or they're maniacs.

Any way you look at it, it's a call. If you're flop a set an someone stacks you with a higher set don't feel bad, that's what's supposed to happen.

[hennnerz]

Even against the best draw on that board you are ahead.

As you say BTN's call is worrying. He may have a big draw, or 99+. Its hard to put him on a hand here thought because the information you have is that its a calling hand on BTN preflop, yet can call all in bet on that flop. BTW only raises 12%, so I don't think he would 3bet 66-JJ preflop.

Looking at the rough range I don't fold here because there are hands that MP may have that suits his play, which you beat. But if you don't believe he is doing this with just one pair then get out.

[Mike Kelley]

That didn't look right.

[jk1986]

Even if the diamonds weren't there I'd still stick it in instantly, you beat so much! And as it is you beat straight and flush draws too, insta insta call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Ramana]

I did some analysis. MP is an idiot, but BTN is rocksolid. He will go PFAI w AA KK, RR w QQ JJ. He pushes monsterdraws for FE on flop or turn, but he is not likely to call with them. In his case the best I can hope for is maaybe JJ. TT i don't think he will felt. Also I think we have to take in account that BTN will call w JJ way less often than with a set. I exclude 2p kinda hands because he simply wont call a PFR with them. I estimate their ranges to this:

Board: 2d 3d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.794% 37.79% 00.00% 221493 0.00 { 2c2h }
Hand 1: 18.628% 18.62% 00.00% 109149 18.00 { 88+, 33, Ad8d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 5d4d, A8o }
Hand 2: 43.578% 43.57% 00.00% 255369 18.00 { JJ, 88, 33 }


So I figure it's probably slightly more than breakeven, but does the huge variance justify the little profit? It would be a marginal call yes/no?

[Nogatsira]

[ QUOTE ]
So I figure it's probably slightly more than breakeven, but does the huge variance justify the little profit? It would be a marginal call yes/no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any +ev move, no mather how high the variance is a good play.
Don't be playing scared cause the variance might be high.

+ev = +ev
not doing +ev moves = [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Ramana]

[ QUOTE ]
Any +ev move, no mather how high the variance is a good play.
Don't be playing scared cause the variance might be high.

+ev = +ev
not doing +ev moves = [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

oh man do I suck today [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


[ QUOTE ]
Also I think we have to take in account that BTN will call w JJ way less often than with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

If BTN calls with only 50% of his JJ, which I think is very likely, we're screwed. Usually I instacall of course, but this one felt sooo bad, and I'm simply trying to figure out pros and cons.

Board: 2d 3d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.007% 27.01% 00.00% 117790 0.00 { 2c2h }
Hand 1: 17.891% 17.89% 00.00% 78023 9.00 { 88+, 33, Ad8d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 5d4d, A8o }
Hand 2: 55.102% 55.10% 00.00% 240318 9.00 { JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 88, 33 }

[vixticator]

Explain why the range of MP and Button are not the same, except A8o...