What to do on the turn?

[SkrilaX]

Villain has played like 2 orbits and was over 10-15 hands 50/9/1.5. He called c-bets a bit light (with 99 on Q J x flops and with midpair)

What is the best action on the turn?

Start spel 1811147498.

Raiseydaisey is zitplaats 0 met $92,15.
Nathan1313 is zitplaats 1 met $100,40.
momo1982 is zitplaats 3 met $187,90.
Villain is zitplaats 4 met $78.
Hero is zitplaats 5 met $140,90.

De dealer is zitplaats 5.

Raiseydaisey plaatst een blind van $,50.
Nathan1313 plaatst een blind van $1.

(Hero krijgt Qh Ad.)

Pre-flop:
momo1982 folds.
Villain raises $2,50.
Hero raises $7,50.
Raiseydaisey folds.
Nathan1313 folds.
oldeveste calls voor $7,50.

De flop is
7d 7h Jd.

Villain checks.
Hero zet $16 in.
Villain calls voor $16.

De turn is 8d.

Villain checks.
Hero ??

[modnareno]

Check and river a diamond?

that 8 is an awful card to bet the turn. Some gutshots got there, 99 and TT picked up extra draws, half of his pairs will have draws, J9 and JT picked up gutshots and bigger jacks won't fold because they are good hands on this board.

I know you said this guy peels the flop light, but I think he would peel the turn too. If you really want to set up a triple barrel maybe but i just shut down and take my free card for a big draw.

[SkrilaX]

I dont like the board at all and I have only played a couple of hands against him so that makes it hard. I dont know what to do often in these situations.

But I doubt he calls my 3bet with a Jx hand... so he could have 99 or TT and I think he folds it often enough to make a bet profitable but he could of course also set a trap with 88 or he has the flush already...
I dont think he calls my flopbet with a gutshot btw... so there its only JJ, 88, 22-77 and big card FD?

So with this analyse would a bet be +EV?

[modnareno]

So what hands do you think he calls the flop with and folds the turn? I really don't think there are enough of them to justify betting. If you think there are, then sure, go ahead and bet.

The other thing is with your huge draw, folding out a hand like 44 isn't as big off a deal as you win 30% of the time anyway. Also, getting CRed off your hand by a flush or trips sucks a lot too because you have a decent draw against those hands.

[SkrilaX]

I think there are enough hands that fold the turn... and if i check and i dont make my hand he is never gonna fold so then i lose a mediumsizedpot that i could have picked up earlier ...

On the other side when i make my hand i can push for value on the river and win a very big pot (if he doesnt have the boat)

hard to choose whats the best

[delta k]

I'd check without a second thought- he's not folding a pair, we hate getting c/r with the diamond draw and if he's not paired we're winning (most likely).