Stuck with KQs on turn...

Supesimmo · #1 07-17-2007, 04:34 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (9 handed) handconverter.com

SB (t66136)
BB (t29090)
UTG (t42284)
Hero (t40254)
MP1 (t15855)
MP2 (t16240)
MP3 (t41714)
CO (t20567)
Button (t60766)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t5555, 5 folds, SB calls t4555, 1 fold.

Flop: (t10910) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t10910) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t6000, Hero...?

illini43 · #2 07-17-2007, 04:36 PM

PUSH, tons and tons of outs and the SB could easily be taking a shot with ATC.

Supesimmo · #3 07-17-2007, 04:42 PM

So pushing>>>>>>>>>>&gt ;>>calling??

illini43 · #4 07-17-2007, 04:50 PM

Well if you call and hit a card that helps your hand, villian isn't going to put any more chips in the pot.

Think about this: If a K/Q/J/club hit the river, no hand that would not call a turn push would call a value-type bet or push on the river.

I don't think you can extract any more chips out of villian if he doesn't have a hand and you improve on the river. Pushing on the turn has some FE that might get a hand that is ahead of you (like AT) to fold.

I believe push > call

hamnegger · #5 07-17-2007, 06:57 PM

call or semi bluff all in

ItalianFX · #6 07-17-2007, 10:37 PM

I think you have about 11 outs. 4 Jacks, 7 clubs (minus the 8 and 9 if he has a set). I think I did that right. I'm pretty sure you have close enough odds just to call here and hope to hit a card that helps you, however, like illini and ham said, it's probably best to push and get him to fold a better hand right now because you won't get anything else out of him if you call and hit one of those 11 outs.

blankoblanco · #7 07-17-2007, 11:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Think about this: If a K/Q/J/club hit the river, no hand that would not call a turn push would call a value-type bet or push on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true, if a J hits river we stack all sorts of Qs that would fold to a turn shove

woohoo88 · #8 07-18-2007, 03:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have about 11 outs. 4 Jacks, 7 clubs (minus the 8 and 9 if he has a set). I think I did that right.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're on the right track. I just wanted to point out a couple things.

-You're counting the J of clubs twice.
-You have more outs against a lot of hands that currently are ahead. At most, 17 vs hands like 44/AT/78 (all no clubs). 3 Kings, 3 Queens, 3 Jacks, 8 clubs (no J of clubs [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

So you want to generally think of your outs more along the lines of a weighted average. For this hand I'd guess it's around 13-14 (not even considering hands he's ahead of which are very much in villans range). This is all somewhat of a shorthand for thinking in terms of range based equities, which is something you definitly want to familiarize yourself with.

oh and FWIW: a push looks good to me.

ItalianFX · #9 07-18-2007, 03:41 AM

Thanks, woohoo88. I knew something was wrong. I don't know how I forgot the Kings and Queens. I was at work, bored and tired. I think I may have be getting distracted at the time too.

NoahSD · #10 07-18-2007, 04:00 AM

Definitely shove for the reasons given.