243682 hands, 100 river checkraises

ddubois · #1 07-15-2007, 03:44 AM

I filtered for river check raises and I've only done it 100 times this year. More amazingly, 30% of my total profits for the year has come from those 100 hands! Obviously there's a significant corollary with my strongest hands; the act of CRing doesn't make your hand huge, but it does make the payoff huge. (And this is further skewed by when it actually works, instead of them checking behind and laughing at you.)

I'm looking at how the hands go, and it's amazing to me the weakness of hands some of my opponents are showing when all that money goes in. Almost universally, if I had just lead at the pot, there's no way I would have been able to get that much money in - their hands weren't strong enough to call a 2x pot shove, nor strong enough to raise.

I feel like my eyes have been opened. I knew big pots were for big hands and all that, but I'm sure I haven't spent enough time worrying about pot manipulation and stack sizes while playing. In my pot math thread, I talk about how one overbet feeds into another - this is better, this is like a 4th street of betting. 10->30->90 is much less than 10->30->90->270!

geo8o2 · #2 07-15-2007, 04:32 AM

i'll remember this next time i get checkraised on the river.

AAismyfriend · #3 07-15-2007, 04:40 AM

out of curiosity, were any of your river c/rs bluffs? or were they strictly for value? What % of them were called? I'm pretty astounded that 30% of your yearly profits came from river c/rs, that number seems crazy to me.

yoshi86 · #4 07-15-2007, 05:05 AM

They were probably strictly for value with thenuts or near nuts so the discovery is very very skewed.

aislephive · #5 07-15-2007, 05:22 AM

You must not win a lot OP?

Number27 · #6 07-15-2007, 05:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
They were probably strictly for value with thenuts or near nuts so the discovery is very very skewed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still 30% of yearly profits off of 100 hands is ridiculously high unless OP is a break even player or he took shots at 25/50 and happened to c/r a lot.

Jamougha · #7 07-15-2007, 06:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They were probably strictly for value with thenuts or near nuts so the discovery is very very skewed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still 30% of yearly profits off of 100 hands is ridiculously high unless OP is a break even player or he took shots at 25/50 and happened to c/r a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it's not. 5ptbb/100 is 1 buyin per 1000 hands. If you played 250K hands @ that rate then you would make 250 buyins. You would easily find 100 hands where you won on average 1 buyin. So 100/250 = 0.4 and you could say that 40% of your profits came from 100 hands.

Of course this is taking gross profits and comparing them to net profits, a bad comparison, so the obvious question is but how much did you loose?!?

tcorbin16 · #8 07-15-2007, 06:28 AM

op.... why do you keep posting [censored] like this?

Nielsio · #9 07-15-2007, 07:32 AM

OP,

Can you post a couple of hands where villain had a medium strength hand but called anyway?

Jamougha · #10 07-15-2007, 07:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OP,

Can you post a couple of hands where villain had a medium strength hand but called anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's one.

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $540.80
CO: $988.10
Button: $811.25
Hero: $1.088.60
BB: $802.80

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, Hero raises to $21, BB calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($42, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, BB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($122, 2 players)
Hero bets $111, BB calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($344, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $150, Hero raises all-in $913.6, BB calls all-in $477.8.
Uncalled bets: $285.8 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $1599.6
Hero shows QD KC 
BB shows QS10C