(2/4 Party) Value bet or check behind on this river?

[popesc]

BB is a nut who will cap/3bet with absolutely nothing. UTG seems to be a straight forward player after 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero ?...

[Warren Harding]

I vote value bet. If they had at least one Q, or KK or AA or X8, you have heard about it postflop. The fact that BB is nuts helps, but, do you have a read on his postflop? If he is just as nuts postflop, but has suddenly slowed down, then he is slowplaying topset.

EDIT:
Hand range for UTG:
PF raise-call cap: AA-99,AQ+ AJs ATs big question: 88? A8s+?
flop and turn check calls: AK, AT, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], JJ, 99, A8s+?
river check: AK, AT, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], JJ, 99

A8 will donk lead the river for fear of a check through. You do well against UTG, but will s/he call?

BB will call. No one who's nuts enough to cap any will fold the river.

[popesc]

I checked the nut in PT, he tends to be less nutty after the flop. (He makes it to showdown &lt;30% of the time, and calls about 3 times more than he bets/raises)

[Sandberg]

I've been looking for oppurtunities to value bet and this seems like a perfect situation to me. Sure someone could have a queen but I think you are good far more than half the time here. If someone did have a queen, they'd have told you on the turn or the river. Bet.

[SnglMaltScotch]

This is a clear bet. I don't think that we can call a raise here though. Right??

[Hobbs.]

easy value bet.

[psuasskicker]

beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetttttttttttttttttttttttttttt tttttt

- C -

[James.]

bet. and i couldn't fold to a raise from the BB given the description.

[BostonMetro]

I check behind ... and that continues to be my worst leak as a player. But, I can confidently say that YOU should bet this.

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
bet. and i couldn't fold to a raise from the BB given the description.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if c/r on the river came from UTG? Are we folding? I think yes...