I semi-bluff my overpair

[ddubois]

Villain is nitty. How likely is it he will lay down AA with no club? KK no club? KK with club? Should I just cut my losses and fold?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$3/$6 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

b9291974: $593.10
WumplePwn: $696.95
MrFirs_T_ov: $547.00
Hero: $985.50
dynetz: $600.00
NittyGritty29: $765.10

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
MrFirs_T_ov folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21.00</font>, dynetz folds, NittyGritty29 folds, b9291974 folds, <font color="red">WumplePwn raises to $72.00</font>, Hero calls $51.00

Flop: ($147) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">WumplePwn bets $90.00</font>, Hero calls $90.00

Turn: ($327) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">WumplePwn bets $200.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $823.50, $335 to villain</font>

[DJ Sensei]

he's never dropping AA or KK with club. probably not without, either, given the pot size and such. yea, i think a fold is better here.

[yoshi86]

vs a nitty villain I would fold the turn. Villain is getting 3-1 I doubt he folds red kings

[ddubois]

He hit time and eventually called with AA no club, which surprised me given how bad this board is. Maybe if we were deeper or he had KK no club he would have folded.

[Isura]

That board isn't that bad for KK..

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
That board isn't that bad for KK..

[/ QUOTE ]
Board: 7d 7c Tc 9c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.116% 83.23% 00.88% 1648 17.50 { KK+, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TT, 77, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, Ac8c, A7s, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 97s, 86s+, 75s+, 6c5c, 5c4c }
Hand 1: 15.884% 15.00% 00.88% 297 17.50 { KdKh }

[Isura]

yup, all those hands make sense in a rr pot.

[ddubois]

Are you being sarcastic? I would open with all of those hands from the HJ (well, maybe the one-gappers and a couple of the aces only half the time... 100% when I'm running good!), and call a re-raise with position 115bb deep 100% of the time in this situation. Especially against a predictable player who I feel has a strong hand thus presenting good implieds. Anyway, even heavily discounting, I don't think you can get red KK equity over 20%.

[Jinx]

i think calling Axs to a reraise is a pretty big leak. Also I dont know how you play but 99% of tags raise the flop with a FD so Im never folding KK there

[Jamie217]

your calling AJs--&gt; 10-0% 115BB deep??? 115 aint that deep and KJ/QJ? thats uglyy man