Optimal Bluffing Strategy

[Acevader]

I'm looking to try and learn more about this off the back of having read through the relevant chapter in DS's TOP. I've read it through once and have done a little reading on game theory, but I'm still in the dark on the subject matter for now.

Can optimal bluffing strategy (obs) be applied to Holdem poker and particularly NL-holdem? My concern here is that if you are drawing vs a solid thinking player, applying obs might still be ineffective because of the fact the player can see which draw cards hit and didn't - a factor that contributes heavily to his reasoning process.

If it can be applied to NLHE then are there any good articles, threads, books or otherwise that fully explain how to apply it in a practical sense. Do any of you guys use it and if so in what manner (examples?)?

Assuming obs is used in NLHE it is important to identify those players that heavily lean towards calling or folding and then apply obs to the 'random and thinking' group in the middle and adjust accordingly to the extremities. That being the case what WtoSD% would generally indicate "can't be bluffed" and what would indicate "fold machine"?

I realise my questions are all over the place but I'm hoping to refine my questions and thinking in response to the progress of the thread and my learning - i.e you might say: "obs doesn't apply to holdem you dork" and that's the end of that [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Thanks in advance...

[Acevader]

....does ^^^^ mean anything to any one? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Mike]

In general, a player must be willing to believe you and fold their hand. Lags and calling stations generally are not good bluffing candidates.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking to try and learn more about this off the back of having read through the relevant chapter in DS's TOP. I've read it through once and have done a little reading on game theory, but I'm still in the dark on the subject matter for now.

Can optimal bluffing strategy (obs) be applied to Holdem poker and particularly NL-holdem?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think it can. It seems easier to apply to limit holdem.

[ QUOTE ]
My concern here is that if you are drawing vs a solid thinking player, applying obs might still be ineffective because of the fact the player can see which draw cards hit and didn't - a factor that contributes heavily to his reasoning process.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would only be true if he knew what you were drawing to!

The point of an optimal bluffing strategy is that he can't "reason" which of your bets are bluffs and which are for value.

[ QUOTE ]
If it can be applied to NLHE then are there any good articles, threads, books or otherwise that fully explain how to apply it in a practical sense. Do any of you guys use it and if so in what manner (examples?)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that in principle you could apply the strategy in TOP.

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming obs is used in NLHE it is important to identify those players that heavily lean towards calling or folding and then apply obs to the 'random and thinking' group in the middle and adjust accordingly to the extremities.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of an optimal bluffing strategy is that it doesn't matter whether the other player thinks, calls at random or whatever. He cannot exploit your bets regardless what he does.

You seem to be asking a different question though, something like "how can I work out how often I should bluff?" As TOP notes, your best approach would be to adapt to the player. An optimal strategy is probably best against an average player, bluffing a bit more better against a tight player and a bit less better against a loose one.

[ QUOTE ]
That being the case what WtoSD% would generally indicate "can't be bluffed" and what would indicate "fold machine"?

[/ QUOTE ]

This would not be the right statistic to draw conclusions from. You need to know how often they win money at showdown and how often they fold, not how often they go there.

I wouldn't use PT stats anyway. I think you're much better off observing the player at showdown. Watch what cards they show and ask yourself whether you felt, given the odds on offer and previous action, their call was reasonable. This is regardless whether they won. You can also learn by observing someone fold on a dry board. These things seem to me to be much more helpful than stats, because they're quite hard to interpret. Mind you, seeing how often a player folded on the river might be useful.

[ QUOTE ]
I realise my questions are all over the place but I'm hoping to refine my questions and thinking in response to the progress of the thread and my learning - i.e you might say: "obs doesn't apply to holdem you dork" and that's the end of that [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Without wishing to be rude, if you don't see that it clearly applies to holdem, and obviously so, you probably aren't going to be able to use it as a way of working out when to bluff. Other approaches might suit you better.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
In general, a player must be willing to believe you and fold their hand. Lags and calling stations generally are not good bluffing candidates.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've always found LAGs to be excellent bluffing candidates, particularly if they aren't terrible. Their game is based around reading you correctly and not paying too heavily when behind, so they're relatively willing to fold to aggression, particularly if a draw has come in.

[Acevader]

[ QUOTE ]
Without wishing to be rude, if you don't see that it clearly applies to holdem, and obviously so, you probably aren't going to be able to use it as a way of working out when to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's entirely fair - I had good reason to question the use of it in holdem. In 5 card draw if you take one card on the turn your opponent might conclude you have 2-pair, a flush draw or a straight draw. He knows nothing about whether the card dealt to you helped your hand and thus is in the dark if you bet the river.

However, in holdem lets assume at the turn Player A bets and Player B calls. The board is Js,6h,Qs,2d and Player A has AQo. The river is 2h and Player B bets (what we know to be a bluff but player A doesn't). Even if Player A knows that B uses OBS can he not deduce that all the draws have missed here (i.e. spade flush, K10, AK, 89, etc) and act accordingly. If player B would usually have been aggressive with 2p/set then surely a bet on this broken board is a bluff or blocker more often than not and OBS or not Player A will call far more often and snap that bluff off far more often?

Is that not a reasonable basis on which to question OBS in community card games or am I missing something?

[ QUOTE ]
if you don't see that it clearly applies to holdem, and obviously so, you probably aren't going to be able to use it as a way of working out when to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a little aside that is pretty defeatist - there is nothing I can't/won't understand about this game. If it can be learned, I can (and hopefully will) learn it eventually [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Shandrax]

Bluffing in Hold'em is very complicated and much different from Stud or Draw. This is because of the community board and of course because the last card comes face up!

In Stud you look at the other guys board and try to represent something that beats it. In Hold'em when you try to represent a flush, the other guy may very well have it.

[Bonk]

Stud is similar to hold 'em in the sense that you can see the up-cards your opponent is playing, his actions and what do you make of his hand given his actions. In Hold 'em, the 'up-cards' are actually the community cards, so there’s no big difference here. Actually - bluffing in Stud is fundamentally more difficult because there are more exposed cards and hence more information available about what likely holdings player might have. If you try to represent a heart flush and an expert opponent counted another 5 exposed hearts, he will probably look you up.

To sum this up - I'm not sure that bluffing is easier on Stud. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Regarding bluffing strategy - I think this is best accomplished by accurate hand reading and knowing the type of player you're up against. If you read your opponent's hand as weak or your opponent as generally weak - you should bluff more, and vice-versa.

Cheers.

[insyder19]

What are LAG players?

[qpw]

Loose Aggressive.