Is Kos Leaking?

Kos13 · #1 07-10-2007, 01:37 PM

TLDR summary at bottom.

Just got PT back in February when I moved up to 100NL. I wasn't able to play "regularly" until a week ago because of ridiculous amounts of work, school, computer problems, and moving 16 hours north last month. I jumped on FTP last month, but my system is so terrible that I can't play without insane amounts of lag. I'd say about 60% of these hands are from Full Tilt; I was playing through the lag, but I just can't do it anymore, so I'm only playing at UB until my new computer arrives. This is the first week where I've been able to play regularly, and I'm still only able to play 900-1000 hands a day because UB is so dead.

When I started posting here last month, I was just coming off a ridiculous heater, and my overall win rate was 5.78PTBB/100. This month, I've hit a BE stretch, and it's down to about 4.35 overall. From what I've read, this is nothing to complain about, so I won't. However, I'm trying to figure out if this BE stretch is regression to the mean, bad play, or both.

The part that makes me feel like it's a leak is the lack of big pots. Here are my stats during this BE stretch (6/12 - now):

I had that one mini-swing of +4.5 BI, but as you can see, I'm pretty much just stagnating near zero. I feel like I'm never playing any big pots, just a lot of small wins followed by a $35-40 loss to keep me even for the session. The graph makes it look like a lot of big pots, but I went through and counted: during this stretch, I've had just 21 pots where I've won/lost more than 75 bets (I won 14 and lost 7). I feel like I've taken a few more bad beats than normal, but nothing major. I've been raising PF a lot more lately, and I'm taking down a lot of smaller pots, but I actually feel like I'm getting less action now than I was a month ago.

TLDR: BE stretch is probably regression to the mean, but I'm never playing big pots, so I want to make sure I don't have a big leak somewhere. All comments and suggestions are welcome, and don't hold back if you see something terrible.

Steelerman · #2 07-10-2007, 01:39 PM

Hey Kos, how about a breakdown by position?

Mingdu · #3 07-10-2007, 01:41 PM

Looks like you hit big hands in your jumps but "grind" down. No stretch where you are just grinding upwards.

Not sure what that means, just an observation. Maybe you need to be winning more smaller pots.

Kos13 · #4 07-10-2007, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like you hit big hands in your jumps but "grind" down. No stretch where you are just grinding upwards.

Not sure what that means, just an observation. Maybe you need to be winning more smaller pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's weird is I feel like I'm winning a ton of small pots. I was running like 16/16 for a couple sessions the other day, and I think I won about 75% of my raised pots with simple c-bets. No one wanted to play a big pot.

Position chart coming...

Kos13 · #5 07-10-2007, 01:50 PM

Mingdu · #6 07-10-2007, 01:52 PM

blinded by the blinds ... that can't be right

Kos13 · #7 07-10-2007, 01:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
blinded by the blinds

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure what you mean...

Mingdu · #8 07-10-2007, 01:56 PM

I read it wrong ... n/m ...

Steelerman · #9 07-10-2007, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've been raising PF a lot more lately, and I'm taking down a lot of smaller pots, but I actually feel like I'm getting less action now than I was a month ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on how tight your pf range was before you started opening up recently, maybe your opponents are giving your raises too much respect, hence little action. Of course, this isn't a terrible thing.

Your stats look fine and you're a winning player so more likely it's just a statistical thing. The next 14K hands could be nothing but action.

Kos13 · #10 07-10-2007, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Depending on how tight your pf range was before you started opening up recently, maybe your opponents are giving your raises too much respect, hence little action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to PFR only about 6.5% of the time. In the last six weeks, it's shot up to over 8%. I've had quite a few sessions lately where I've run 15/13. I think that's probably a good thing, though I guess it's possible that those raises with hands like 77 (where I used to limp if someone else had already limped in) are causing some junk hands to fold. Does anyone think running ~14/9 is worse for profits than 14/7?