SnG AA Bubble Hand

BradleyT · #1 07-07-2007, 07:50 AM

I wasn't sure at all how to play this. I had AAss in the CO and the big blind was all in with less than 1BB. At the time I felt my hand was way too strong to fold preflop - but after running some sims it's not really that great of a hand. In fact the BB here had K876ds and if it was just me and him he'd be a 55:45 favorite over me.

So my first thought is to limp and hope SB completes. In general if we consider most hands about 50:50 then allowing the SB to play means the BB is only going to survive about 33%. For me to get 4th place the BB must beat both myself and the SB which is usually pretty hard to do.

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Hi-Lo Tournament
Blinds: t150/t300
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1845
Hero: t896
SB: t10595
BB: t164

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero calls t300 (pot was t314), SB calls t150 (pot was t614).

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t492, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t492, 3 players)
SB bets t300, Hero calls t300 (pot was t792).

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1092, 3 players)
SB bets t300, Hero calls all-in t296.
Uncalled bets: t4 returned to SB.

Results:
Final pot: t1688

I pretty much just wanted to get to showdown without having to commit more chips. At the time I called the turn because I felt SB could be betting a low draw and my hand could still be the best for high. On the river I figured the pot was giving me 5:1 or so and my hand could be good enough to call there.

I posted BB's hand in the first paragraph - he got 4th and I did get 3rd as I had hoped but I really was at a loss as to how to proceed on basically every street.

bbartlog · #2 07-07-2007, 12:10 PM

Unless SB is a donk, I think you could fold the turn. You do have some outs to a straight, and you might be good if the board pairs, but overall I'd guess you're pretty far behind SB's range. The pot sizes you show don't reflect the situation correctly: there is a main pot with t492 and a side pot (you and SB) with t272. If SB has any bubble play skills, he's not going to push you out of the sidepot with a bet unless he's fairly confident he can take down the main pot and eliminate BB. So I'd give him credit for two pair on the turn, and fold. Of course some people play haphazardly once they've already got 3/4 of the chips in play...

prodonkey · #3 07-07-2007, 12:31 PM

for god sakes.. raise preflop or fold. I'd be tempted to fold in this situation.. I'm assuming BB has 164 chips total here.. and not 164 chips after posting the blind. If he doubles up he only gets to 328 and has to post 1/2 of that on his next hand. Where if you get in the pot and the SB, you triple him up.. and you lose 300 if you don't win part of the pot, it puts you in a very bad spot.

"If SB has any bubble play skills, he's not going to push you out of the sidepot with a bet unless he's fairly confident he can take down the main pot and eliminate BB."

I've found that about 80% of the time the guy is just a total moron and is usually bluffing for some reason.

Tough spot though.. I'm going to say folding>>>raising>>>>>> >>>>>>>calling

Burdzthewurd · #4 07-07-2007, 02:39 PM

I'm either potting his before the flop or just folding, yes I'd want to make sure the BB busts, but you have few chips yourself and I'd hope you're going for a win here, not just 3rd. As played, I fold to the turn bet - you're only going one way and might be in a lot of trouble anyway if he flopped two pair or has a big wrap.

prodonkey · #5 07-07-2007, 03:11 PM

I think going for the win is irrelevant.. with that chip stack and someone that is all in, in his blind.. you do what you must to cash.