Variance, & Statistical Probability

[Leo Doyle]

I'm trying to work out the statistical probability that I am a winning player, and whether I can state this within a defined range i.e. <font color="blue"> </font> There is a 99% statistical probabiity that my ROI is between -5% and 15%.

On Sharkscope I have a 10% ROI (admitidly the graph has just peaked), but I started off losing around $100 then turned it around and I'm about $185 in profit after 220 some games playing sit and go heads up and MTT but mainly STT. average stake $7.

I feel i've not been playing too well, and know I can play better, but enjoy playing too much to stop when I'm tilting slightly. With such a small sample size with how much confidence can I say I'm a winning player.

My Pokerstars ID is Leo Doyle

[losingdonkey]

there is a large chance that you are a donk

[illegit]

There's a 100% chance (+/- 0%), this thread is awful.

[Drjamescrow]

i did all the math for you because i was a stat major in college. it took me quite a while, but i enjoy the math and like to help people. the results of my work conclude that you have a 50% chance of being a winning player because you either are or you arent.

[AbreuTime]

Is there a question?
Do you seek affirmation?
Why did you post this?

[Savant]

You don't post this [censored] in BBV, Leo.

[Leo Doyle]

Well suppose the answer to this one is, who cares???

Maybe if I rephrase - Looking at mainly sit n go's how many games is a relatively decent sample size?

My reason for posting here is because I thought it would have to do with variance, if not where should I ask?

((Probably should have let this one disappear, surely going to get nothing but slated again))

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
Well suppose the answer to this one is, who cares???

Maybe if I rephrase - Looking at mainly sit n go's how many games is a relatively decent sample size?

My reason for posting here is because I thought it would have to do with variance, if not where should I ask?

((Probably should have let this one disappear, surely going to get nothing but slated again))

[/ QUOTE ]

you want to post this in BBV4Life

in regular BBV people only care about the B&amp;B... it takes a lifer to care about the V

[CandyCornsLOL]

Wow, I lol'ed at several of these replies

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a 100% chance (+/- 0%), this thread is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it has some potential.