QQ getting close to ITM

fl0w · #1 07-13-2007, 03:43 PM

I was decently new at the table. I'd lost some chips first then won more back. Hadn't seen main villain in any big pot yet though I got the impression he'd been pretty active.

I was pretty much suspecting an AA or KK here but the chance they were blocking each others aces or whatever and the possibility of me being in front or hitting a set made it a call at last. A win would've gotten me into top 20 with about 500 people left and 360 ITM.
What do you guys think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t13370)
MP3 (t1859)
CO (t29011)
Button (t5335)
SB (t4409)
BB (t7535)
UTG (t2459)
UTG+1 (t20806)
MP1 (t9584)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t800, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2000, 3 folds, SB raises to t4384, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t20781, Hero calls t11345 (All-In).

Flop: (t38660) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t38660) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t38660) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t38660

Results in white below: 
SB has Jc Js (flush, jack high).
UTG+1 has As Ad (flush, ace high).
Hero has Qh Qs (flush, queen high).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins t38660.

Dunkman · #2 07-13-2007, 03:51 PM

I'm folding without much thought after UTG 5-BETS ALLIN.

levAA · #3 07-13-2007, 03:55 PM

hmmmm
raise
re-raise
re-re-raise
re-re-re-raise

[ QUOTE ]
I was pretty much suspecting an AA or KK here

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you were right
i would have folded this

fl0w · #4 07-13-2007, 04:06 PM

I know I'm just hoping to find signs it wasn't that easy, but I'm getting 3.4 to 1 on the call.

About 5 to 1 on hitting a set and the chance I'm already in front and they're possibly blocking each other. Still a no-brainer?

mmbossman · #5 07-13-2007, 04:13 PM

Where are you getting 5 to 1 on hitting your set? The number is closer to 7.5 to 1 I believe.

ForRealDD · #6 07-13-2007, 04:15 PM

I definately don't think this is a no-brainer with no reads. If I read this correctly, sb is pretty short which is opening up his range pretty wide.

If UTG +1 isn't a maniac, I'd assign him JJ+ (MAYBE 10-10+), AK+. Given that range, you have about 50% equity in the side pot.
51,369,120 games 0.047 secs 1,092,960,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.763% 48.96% 01.81% 25149069 927219.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 49.237% 47.43% 01.81% 24365613 927219.00 { TT+, AKs, AcKd }

I didn't do the math to include the short stack, but it looks like you can go either way.

fl0w · #7 07-13-2007, 04:22 PM

Alright. This sucked.

I mean it wasn't all that hard to guess at least one of them (and that's probably the big stack) had AA or KK, which should make me fold.

However, of course I analyze the hand later and I'm trying to figure out whether there was still a mathematical reason to call. Would it have been ok, and I'd won, I'd most likely have a good finish with the huge stack I'd have. (top 10)

xxGreat1xx · #8 07-13-2007, 04:23 PM

i dunno....this guy screamed at you what he had. I would have folded and been happy because I still got to see the other two's cards

Dunkman · #9 07-13-2007, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Alright. This sucked.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure it sucked. The key to this problem is will UTG do this with AK. That's what determines your play. I'm leaning towards no, but AK is the nuts online, so I may be wrong. If he does do it with AK, you have 32% equity in the main pot, and 40% equity in the side pot (Ranges AK and TT+ for SB, AK and QQ+ for UTG...I don't think SB is 4-betting AI with AQ or 99 given the action.) I haven't done the math but I'm sure that dictates an easy call.

MJBuddy · #10 07-13-2007, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Where are you getting 5 to 1 on hitting your set? The number is closer to 7.5 to 1 I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

7.5 to 1 ON THE FLOP to hit a set.

4 to 1 over 5 cards for an underpair to bust an overpair.