QQ in MP, ace flops, very loose SB donks

[unzip]

SB has sat on table 6-7 hands ago, got dealt AA first hand, took big pot down and has played in every hand since then (folded most of the times postflop and been not noteworthily aggressive). No special info on button. Whats your play, does your play changes if there is no button (HU)?


Party Poker 0.15/0.30 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?


I think this is quite a clear play here but sometimes you get confused about weird things (SB playing every hand in this case) and I just need some confirmation on this one.

[fabadam]

I'm raising this, there is no need to give up so easily, he could well be donking with an 8 or 6.
If he 3-bets it's tougher, and I'll probably call down.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising this, there is no need to give up so easily, he could well be donking with an 8 or 6.
If he 3-bets it's tougher, and I'll probably call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

raising makes no sense. just chases him away if hes bluffing.

calling down a 3 bet makes no sense, unless you hate money.

just call the flop and reevaluate the turn.

[jack21221]

I raise as well. It makes perfect sense to me, since it buys information while the streets are cheap. If I get 3bet, I call it, then check/fold the turn.

Remember, Kit, that there are two spades on the board, as well as two cards with one gap between. He could easily be semi-bluffing with a flush or straight draw. A raise here won't scare him away.

If he calls your raise here, you can pretty much put him on a draw or ace-rag. Either way, he's likely going to check the turn, where you can check behind (or maybe even bet, depending on reads, which there really aren't any here).

If he folds, you win the pot. Yay pot. Shoving him around like that can occasionally make him more passive against you later on, too.

If he 3bets, you know you're beat, and it'll only cost you one extra small bet.

So, raise.

[KitCloudkicker]

oh god, not more "raising to see where i'm at" nonsense...must be beat a dead horse again?

against players who will 3 bet liberally with even a flush draw here, this play doesnt work

also you do not want him to fold in this hand at any point if he is bluffing or drawing thin.

calling down here is standard. i can point you towards other threads if you like confirmation.

[jack21221]

Kit, the read was that he doesn't three-bet liberally. The read is that he's "not noteworthily aggressive."

Calling down here costs more bets if you're behind, and doesn't gain more if you're ahead.

[fabadam]

[ QUOTE ]


raising makes no sense. just chases him away if hes bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind that, cause I win the pot that way and he can't suck out on me anymore. The read on the guy is that he's very loose, not that he's very aggressive. In the latter case you might have him bluff another round at you.

Also, I want to push button out of the pot, cause he's still around as well.

[ QUOTE ]

calling down a 3 bet makes no sense, unless you hate money.

just call the flop and reevaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If button folds, and SB 3-bets, we are getting 12-to-1 for calling the 3-bet.

Let's say we call, giving button 8-to-1 to call along.
We have to do estimates for our equity, which I'll do now:
Towards SB, we are WA/WB (though further behind than ahead if so). Let's say we have an average equity of 40% vs SB alone.
Take button along, and he'll also take around 20% equity, bringing our equity down to ~30%.
A raise wins about 10% equity of an 8SB pot, or 0.8 SB. So the extra SB we put in with a raise is paid for by button's induced fold almost entirely.
Add to that the fact that our raise will regularly slow down SB, and I think the raise is gaining equity here.

When we get 3-bet, it's tough. Even if we assume we're 100% beat now, and down to 2 outs, it's costing us 2 more SBs (1 BB) to see the river. So we're paying 3SB to win a potential 18SB or so (12 now + 2 on turn + 4 on river when we spike the Q). That's 6:1 and clearly not good enough if we assume we are behind 100% of the time. Give him a 10% chance that it's still a bluff and we're already getting mighty close.
Still, it's probably a fold when you're 3-bet.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
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raising makes no sense. just chases him away if hes bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind that, cause I win the pot that way and he can't suck out on me anymore. The read on the guy is that he's very loose, not that he's very aggressive. In the latter case you might have him bluff another round at you.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hes hopelessly bluffing he probably has close to &lt;1% chance to draw out.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I want to push button out of the pot, cause he's still around as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Button is probably drawing to (probably in order of likelihood) -&gt; running outs, 4/5 outs, 8+ outs (flush/OESD). The first case is most likely, and in the latter case he won't be folding regardless. I don't see a reason to really push button out. It's not like he might have cards which put us in reverse domination.

[ QUOTE ]
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calling down a 3 bet makes no sense, unless you hate money.

just call the flop and reevaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If button folds, and SB 3-bets, we are getting 12-to-1 for calling the 3-bet.

Let's say we call, giving button 8-to-1 to call along.
We have to do estimates for our equity, which I'll do now:
Towards SB, we are WA/WB (though further behind than ahead if so). Let's say we have an average equity of 40% vs SB alone.
Take button along, and he'll also take around 20% equity, bringing our equity down to ~30%.
A raise wins about 10% equity of an 8SB pot, or 0.8 SB. So the extra SB we put in with a raise is paid for by button's induced fold almost entirely.
Add to that the fact that our raise will regularly slow down SB, and I think the raise is gaining equity here.

When we get 3-bet, it's tough. Even if we assume we're 100% beat now, and down to 2 outs, it's costing us 2 more SBs (1 BB) to see the river. So we're paying 3SB to win a potential 18SB or so (12 now + 2 on turn + 4 on river when we spike the Q). That's 6:1 and clearly not good enough if we assume we are behind 100% of the time. Give him a 10% chance that it's still a bluff and we're already getting mighty close.
Still, it's probably a fold when you're 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

40% equity is way overly optimistic. Against a 3bet our equity is like 9% (2 outer) at best, less if button has drawing cards since we can hit our Q and lose. I don't think anyone is donkish enough to bluff 3bet esp on the flop, either.

A raise cannot "gain" equity other than knocking out players with holdings detrimental to our own. Assuming you mean it is +EV, I doubt it since I think button gives extra overlay and every bet that he calls just adds more money to help cover the times SB has us beaten, since button is likely drawing slim.

FWIW, I just fold without second thought on the flop. This is almost 100% Ax in the games that I play.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind that, cause I win the pot that way and he can't suck out on me anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making 2-outers fold when they would 3barrel is -EV

Call flop. Folding is probably a close second.

[Maxinho]

raise for a free card =P
fold if 3bets