NLTRN Good old pair and a flush draw

[waxhax0rs]

Full Tilt Poker Game #3119727816: $5 + $0.25 Heads Up Sit & Go (23838411), Table 1 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:57:24 ET - 2007/08/01
Seat 1: waxhax0rs (1,900)
Seat 2: fucemup (1,100)
fucemup posts the small blind of 15
waxhax0rs posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to waxhax0rs [2d 8d]
fucemup calls 15
waxhax0rs checks
*** FLOP *** [5d 2s Qd]
waxhax0rs bets 40
fucemup raises to 180
waxhax0rs has 15 seconds left to act
waxhax0rs raises to 500

What do you think of hands like these? This guy is not terrible but is definitely a donk and probably a decently large loser. Usually the tell-tale sign for me is strange and sometimes random bet-sizing. One time he bet something like 380 into an 80 pot. Another time he minbet to the river with the nutflush draw even when he hit on the river, although the board was double paired so he might have had reason to be scared (although I wouldn't be surprised to see him stack off but I couldn't make it happen because I had the lowest fullhouse and had no clue what he had). I think my fold equity might be close to zero because the player might be a little frustrated. A few hands earlier I donked the flop of 9 6 4 two toned with 62. He called and I donked a 6 turn which he raised somewhat largely. I thought a bit and reraised all-in. He said "ha" and folded. So I know he is capable of moves. Although he may be frustrated and therefore my fold equity might be almost 0. At the same time he might be frustrated and making a move with not much but it's not impossible for him to pick up a hand. I'm at a dead even coinflip against top pair and obviously worse against a better hand. If I lose I'm not in terrible shape to stage a comeback but this guy doesn't seem exactly like a guy that will let me easily grind back up against him although there's a good chance that I could.


Basically what it boils down to, if you think you have very little fold equity, are you willing to take a 50-50 flip against in a field where your edge is probably much larger than that? I mean I have the lead, and I'm not dead if I lose but still. Do you think I'd be better calling his raise? Off the top of my head the three bad things that could happen are 1) I hit and don't get action because he's scared. 2) I don't hit and am faced with a large turn bet or 3) I hit trips or two pair but he's still beating me.

What are situations where you want to try to get it in on the flop and what are situations where you don't? What are good lines in either case?