8 left in stars million, TT.

[gobboboy]

Don't have the hh, but it's in the replay.

jeffbeesdat has about 2.4 million in the hijack and opens for 150k. He's done this several times, and we (mlagoo) have 3bet him 2-3 times at the final table and he's folded every time. Our image is quite TAG at this point. We are chipleader with about 3.2 million. Blinds are 30k/60k/6k with about 15 million in play.

Jeff opens for 150k in the hijack, mlagoo calls in the CO with black tens. Flop 955hh, jeff bets 300k into about 420k, mlagoo calls. Turn is an offsuit 4. Jeff checks, mlagoo bets 500k into a little over a million, Jeff shoves for 1.1 million more and mlagoo folds.

This hand was probably the most debatable hand that we saw at the final table and one that frustrates some of us to this day. My belief is that mlagoo is ahead a ton of the time here when Jeff shoves a flush draw, a midpair, a nine, or sometimes just two overs here because mlagoo has been pushing him around quite a bit. The rest of the house is saying that Jeff has an overpair here almost all the time (or nines full) because of the 'million factor' and normal hand ranges. I think that jeff's timing in the hand overall and his basic hand ranges after being played back at a ton should be super wide. Combined with the great odds we were getting to have a dominating stack at a table full of people making very suboptimal decisions, I have another excuse to to not fold a pair (my general goal in poker).

I think that bet/calling > checking behind and calling any river and betting when checked to > check/folding > bet/folding. They think that bet/folding is bad too but they would rather check behind.

Your thoughts? What is the worst hand you call with here? Who 3bets preflop?

[luckychewy]

i think bet/fold on the turn is pretty bad because i can definitely see him c/r ai a worse hand(though i don't know his game very well). i agree with your assessment of the possible actions. i also think raise/calling flop is fine as well.

[Dave D]

I like the call PF.

Why not raise the flop? Like you said, you have a good chance of having the best hand. See where you're at? If he 3 bets here, can you maybe fold?

How likely do you think he's like 4th leveling you on that turn? Because that's what it would require for you to make that fold.

Also, if you guys have been bullying this guy, isn't that more reason for him to have a legit hand here ( make his range tighter) namely the one time he's not folded and chosen to play back, it's with the goods.

[nath]

Don't bet the turn if you aren't calling a shove. That's all there is to it. Call most rivers.

[0evg0]

If you're calling his c/shove here, I think it's pretty much the same as 3bet-calling a shove preflop.

Just throwing that out there, agree/disagree?

[8Adam8]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't bet the turn if you aren't calling a shove. That's all there is to it. Call most rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't bet the turn if you aren't calling a shove. That's all there is to it. Call most rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if villian had called turn, are we checking behind on an overcard river? What about an undercard?

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't have the hh, but it's in the replay.

jeffbeesdat has about 2.4 million in the hijack and opens for 150k. He's done this several times, and we (mlagoo) have 3bet him 2-3 times at the final table and he's folded every time. Our image is quite TAG at this point. We are chipleader with about 3.2 million. Blinds are 30k/60k/6k with about 15 million in play.

Jeff opens for 150k in the hijack, mlagoo calls in the CO with black tens. Flop 955hh, jeff bets 300k into about 420k, mlagoo calls. Turn is an offsuit 4. Jeff checks, mlagoo bets 500k into a little over a million, Jeff shoves for 1.1 million more and mlagoo folds.

This hand was probably the most debatable hand that we saw at the final table and one that frustrates some of us to this day. My belief is that mlagoo is ahead a ton of the time here when Jeff shoves a flush draw, a midpair, a nine, or sometimes just two overs here because mlagoo has been pushing him around quite a bit. The rest of the house is saying that Jeff has an overpair here almost all the time (or nines full) because of the 'million factor' and normal hand ranges. I think that jeff's timing in the hand overall and his basic hand ranges after being played back at a ton should be super wide. Combined with the great odds we were getting to have a dominating stack at a table full of people making very suboptimal decisions, I have another excuse to to not fold a pair (my general goal in poker).

I think that bet/calling > checking behind and calling any river and betting when checked to > check/folding > bet/folding. They think that bet/folding is bad too but they would rather check behind.

Your thoughts? What is the worst hand you call with here? Who 3bets preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Gobbo --

I think you've got it about right. One reason to fold is that this would be a pretty intricate bluff line, but that's largely counteracted by the fact that an opponent with no plan at all might also do it. ("OK, raise. OK, bet the flop. Damn, I have nothing, check the turn. Screw you, mlagoo, I'm all in!") The obvious point that mlagoo is unlikely to have much of anything (given Villain's perception that mlagoo 3bets a lot) is super-important.

--Nate

[Clayton]

easiest turn check ever tbh. i was watching the table as well and didn't feel mlagoo was pushing around jeff by any means, and though jeffbees is capable of interpretting table images into his play, for the most part he is a sophista-nit and i think the range gobbo is assigning to him by the turn is far too generous.

that said, if we are betting we have to fold to a shove here imo, because matt's weighted range here is like 90%+ medium ish one pair hands and 10% floats/stone-nizzles and jeff should have a pretty good idea where are at enough to not make a "fold equity" shove and just give up.

the question then becomes whether or not jeff is capable of pulling the trigger in the million with a suboptimal range. i'm skeptical, on the simple account of the fact that it looks like mlagoo has a one pair hand that made the turn bet with the intentions of calling a CR shove.

so, check the turn. and fwiw everyone ive spoken too not named gobbo agrees w me, most of them on the basis that villain is jeffbeesdat.

[hERESY]

[ QUOTE ]
checking behind and calling any river and betting when checked to

[/ QUOTE ]

villain's at 1.9 million, the pot is > 1 mil on the flop. I'd check behind and call .9 million on the river.