That thing they do...where they jam the flop with a set

[Pokerdemic]

Hi All,


I am a relative beginner and recently switched from micro SNGs to NLHE 25 cash games. I have been surprised by the number of times I have seen players hit a set and insta-push the flop when a two flush on the board shows up; I have seen it when they were in position and out of position, and I had to have seen in a few times just in the last week.

So this play obviously "protects" the hand by killing the pot odds for the flush draw. But the flush draw is only 2-1 to come in anyway....assuming the villian has one to begin with. Doesn't jamming the flop in this situation miss value bets on the river and turn? and all those times a donk will shove a busted draw as a bluff on the river?

So why do people do this? Is there ever a good situation to do this in? Or at this level can you shove the flop and count on a donk with a flush draw to call enough times to make it profitable? Anyone else seen this a bunch?

[Pokerdemic]

my bad, the flush draw is only 3-1 to come in. right?

[mmbossman]

[ QUOTE ]
my bad, the flush draw is only 3-1 to come in. right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Odds the flush will come on the turn: 1 to 4.22
Odds the flush will come on the river (blank on the turn): 1 to 4.11

Odds the flush will come flop to river: 1 to 1.86

So if you push 20 bucks into a $100 pot, you'll likely get called every time by a flush draw since it would be a +EV move for them each time. If the situation is reversed ($100 into a $20 pot), the odds won't be good enough for the flush draw to call to have it be a +EV (100 into a 120 pot).

At least that's what my beginner math says. Anyone care to correct me?

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]
So why do people do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because they're terrible.

I don't know if you're aware of this, but there are a lot of people who play poker that have no idea what they're doing...

Yeah, surprising, I know..

[ QUOTE ]
Is there ever a good situation to do this in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, if the other guy is a complete idiot who'll call with a worse hand.

Otherwise, no.

[Fermion5]

aren't the odds less for a flush winning less than 33% since the heart can't pair the board?

[Nsight7]

I have used the jam move but the circumstances are pretty specific, i.e. a board with heavy straight/flush draws plus a loose raiser coming in for a raise before me when a lot of chips are already in the middle. However, it is rare that I do it. Usually I just give them a bad price pure and simple and watch myself if the out I suspect they own hits.

[lucky_mf]

Sometimes you think there is a good chance that someone has a 2nd best hand that they will call with. Also, a lot of times an opponent will put you on a draw and give you a light call. Pushing really good made hands like this also makes it easier to play draws aggressively because players can't put you on a draw when you push the flop (only relevant if you play with the same thinking opponents often). All this said, you don't want to be pushing these good made hands on drawy boards all the time.

The hand below is an example of when I pushed because I thought someone might have a 2nd best hand to call with either because they made something pretty good or put me on a draw.

Lucky

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2423.08
UTG+1: $676.04
CO: $240
lucky_mf: $555.15
SB: $374.15
BB: $1585.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) lucky_mf is Button with
UTG calls, UTG+1, folds, CO (poster) checks, lucky_mf calls, SB calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: ($30, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $24</font>, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">lucky_mf raises all-in $549.15</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Turn: ($1128.3, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $1128.3)


River: ($1128.3, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $1128.3)


Results:
Final pot: $1128.3
<font color="#ffffff">lucky_mf Shows 6d 6c</font>
<font color="#ffffff">UTG Shows 4c 6s</font>