NL 25 AK-what do i do here?

[machine]

villan was 17.8/2.2/infinity over 45 hands

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.90
hero: $25
MP1: $40.10
MP2: $21.40
MP3: $22.65
CO: $18.35
Button: $24.65
SB: $17.25
BB: $29.50

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $1.1</font>, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($4.5, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $10</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero?

The decision is now push/fold, what would you guys do?

[jimmytrick]

I fold almost always. This looks like 654,406 other hands where my TPTK ran into a set.

Can we not bet $3 here. Given the board I can't see what we gain with the extra dollar.

[CazicT]

I don't think I would pay the PT stats much attention with only 45 hands (i'd be intested to see what the infinity means though, was it 1 bet/0 calls/5 folds/0 raises or 3 bets/0 calls/7 raises/0 folds) it makes a difference I think.

I think AQ is very likely and sets are always possible too. It seems like you are probably behind and also drawing thin and so I think i'd fold. If people put more stock into the PT stats than I do I could see pushing though too, but I need more evidence of him being a maniac...

[BJJIII]

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRINNNNNNNNNNN

[machine]

i put villan on this range: AA,QQ,88,AQs-ATs,KQs,T9s,AQo-AJo

i have 48.041% equity here and with no reads his range is probably larger than this. So its a poosh right

[Kos13]

[ QUOTE ]
i put villan on this range: AA,QQ,88,AQs-ATs,KQs,T9s,AQo-AJo

i have 62.34% equity here and with no reads his range is probably larger than this. So its a poosh right

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's the range, then it's definitely a call. FWIW, I don't think you're going to see AA or QQ much.

[black666]

fold

[machine]

your folding with that much equity?

[flytrap]

This is a tough spot, but I dont' think I push simply because he's taking a big risk by raising just a pair of aces with 2 people behind him yet to act. You've shown a lot of strength, yet he's raised you anyway with 2 people yet to act. I don't think you necessarily have to push or fold either. If you feel you might be ahead of his range, you might consider calling. He may have been raising his pair of aces in case you had like KK, KQ, JJ and now that you've called he may slow down. All in all I probably fold the flop.

[roll]

What's villain limp/calling and then c/ring this flop with? I also doubt its AA or QQ.

I'd say villain's range is something like:

88
AQ
A8s
KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, J9, T9 (clubs only)
AJ

Heres the pokerstove results against this range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

31,929,163 games 22.063 secs 1,447,181 games/sec

Board: Ac Qh 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.064% 47.02% 00.33% 15012954 103928.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 53.936% 55.11% 00.33% 17596523 103928.50 { 88, AsQs, AhJh, AsJs, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh }

Since your equity is 46% I would say the pot is already big enough to make shoving &gt; folding.

If you don't put AJ or worse ace hands like that in his range then your equity is down to 30% and folding &gt; shoving