Set mining

[Passaman]

When people say "set mining" I assume they mean calling any preflop raise with a pocket pair hoping to flop the set. I know sets flop about 12% of the time, but help me out here.....what size raise should NOT be called with a pocket pair? I ask because people use the term "set mining" derisively, and it raises your VPIP. Thanks

[Bonk]

Naively speaking, suppose your opponent has a big pair and will always stack it unimproved no matter what, then you're basically getting 1:7 on your bet. If you cover him/he covers you, you will play for stacks 12% of time and fold flop rest 88%. That being said - the ratio of pre-flop bet size to the stack of your opponent should be 1:7 and you should cover, or 1:7 to your stack and your opponent should cover you.

However - for practical reasons you should decrease your implied odds quite a bit for the following reasons:
* Your opponent won't flop an over-pair every time (e.g. Queens on an Ace high board) and thus will be reluctant to put whole stack in
* Your opponent might pick up a strong draw or flop a set himself
* Your opponent might realize that you indeed hit a set and won't stack off lightly

I think that estimating your odds at about 1:9 or here is a conservative figure, but against tough or weak opponents you should probably be even more conservative.

To sum up: A short stack 35BB opponent raises to 6BB pre-flop, and you strongly believe he has a big pocket pair and you find yourself with a small pocket pair – you should probably fold. You are losing 6BB about 7 times (42BB) and win his stack (35BB total) when you flop a set – thus not profitable.

Note: This is relevant for heads-up situation. If the initial pre-flop raiser is short-stacked, but a bigger stack has called his raise – you should consider putting money in and hoping to take a chunk of the big stack too. Put another way: Your implied odds improve.

Cheers.

[Mad Cow]

Interesting question...

I use a 20-1 ratio under ideal circumstances, down to 40-1 or less in less favorable spots.

Example 1
---------
UTG raises 3BB
UTG+1 calls
MP1 calls
MP2 calls
I am on the button with 22. The blinds are somewhat likely to call, but very unlikely to re-raise. If my effective stack is 60BB or more, I call in a heartbeat.

Example 2
---------
UTG raises 3BB
UTG is tough, and wild players are to act after me. If my stack is less than 120BB, I fold my pocket 2's in a heartbeat.

This rule of thumb works for me, but I would be interested in others opinions.

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

use the 10% rule.... if his total raise >= 10% of his stack (and thats the effective stack obv) call...if not, fold.

gl

[WHITEBOYAEHS]

oh yeah and this also works for when u get 3 bet

[DarkMagus]

I personally use 12:1 for ideal situations (opponent is bad, I have position, and pot is heads up).

With more opponents you can decrease the number, but you should generally increase it as your opponents get better and as your position gets worse. I'd probably want twice as good implied odds from the SB than from the button...